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Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy

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  • Pål Boug
  • Ådne Cappelen
  • Anders Rygh Swensen

Abstract

We evaluate the empirical performance of forward‐looking models for inflation dynamics in a small open economy. Using likelihood‐based testing procedures, we find that the exact formulation is at odds with Norwegian data. Moreover, some of the parameters in the model are not well identified. We also find that the inexact formulation is not rejected statistically using a test based on a minimum distance method. However, confidence regions also reveal an identification problem with this model. Instead, we find a well‐specified backward‐looking model with imperfect competition underlying the price setting, which is a model that outperforms an alternative forward‐looking model in‐sample. The backward‐looking model also forecasts somewhat better than the alternative forward‐looking model, during and after the recent financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(4), pages 1010-1039, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:119:y:2017:i:4:p:1010-1039
    DOI: 10.1111/sjoe.12194
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    1. Boug, Pål & Brasch, Thomas von & Cappelen, Ådne & Hammersland, Roger & Hungnes, Håvard & Kolsrud, Dag & Skretting, Julia & Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond C., 2023. "Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Eilev S. Jansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2021. "The Consumption Euler Equation or the Keynesian Consumption Function?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 252-272, February.
    3. Søren Johansen & Anders Ryghn Swensen, 2021. "Adjustment coefficients and exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Thomas von Brasch & Marit Linnea Gjelsvik & Victoria Sparrman, 2018. "Deunionization and job polarization – a macroeconomic model analysis for a small open economy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 380-399, July.
    5. Thomas von Brasch & Ådne Cappelen & Håvard Hungnes & Terje Skjerpen, 2020. "Modeling R&D spillovers to productivity. The effects of tax policy," Discussion Papers 927, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    6. von Brasch, T. & Cappelen, Å. & Hungnes, H. & Skjerpen, T., 2021. "Modeling R&D spillovers to productivity: The effects of tax credits," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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