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Adverse Selection in the Annuities Market and the Impact of Privatizing Social Security

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  • Jan Walliser

Abstract

The observation that few Americans purchase life annuities has often been attributed to adverse selection. A still unanswered question is whether observable price increases caused by adverse selection can be generated endogenously in a life cycle model. This paper calibrates a pure life cycle model for a characteristic US cohort and reproduces three stylized facts. Adverse selection increases annuity prices by 7–10 percent; the cost of adverse selection rises with the age of the annuitant; and the cost is smaller for females than for males. Social security privatization could reduce annuity prices by between 2 and 3 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Walliser, 2000. "Adverse Selection in the Annuities Market and the Impact of Privatizing Social Security," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 373-393, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:373-393
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9442.00206
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    Cited by:

    1. Johann Brunner & Susanne Pech, 2008. "Optimum taxation of life annuities," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 30(2), pages 285-303, February.
    2. Susanne Pech, 2004. "Portfolio decisions on life annuities and financial assets with longevity and income uncertainty," Economics working papers 2004-14, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Ben J. Heijdra & Yang Jiang & Jochen O. Mierau, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Longevity Risk Under Private and Public Insurance and Asymmetric Information," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(2), pages 177-213, June.
    4. Johann K. Brunner & Susanne Pech, 2006. "Adverse selection in the annuity market with sequential and simultaneous insurance demand," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 31(2), pages 111-146, December.
    5. Ben Heijdra & Laurie Reijnders, 2013. "Economic Growth and Longevity Risk with Adverse Selection," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 69-97, March.
    6. Lambregts, Timo R. & Schut, Frederik T., 2020. "Displaced, disliked and misunderstood: A systematic review of the reasons for low uptake of long-term care insurance and life annuities," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    7. Finkelstein, Amy, 2004. "The interaction of partial public insurance programs and residual private insurance markets: evidence from the US Medicare program," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Edwin Wong, 2015. "Marital bargaining in the demand for life insurance: evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 243-268, June.
    9. Sutcliffe, Charles, 2015. "Trading death: The implications of annuity replication for the annuity puzzle, arbitrage, speculation and portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 163-174.
    10. Pashchenko, Svetlana, 2013. "Accounting for non-annuitization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 53-67.
    11. Maria Carannante & Valeria D’amato & Steven Haberman & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2024. "Frailty-based mortality models and reserving for longevity risk," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(2), pages 320-339, April.
    12. Sven H. Sinclair & Kent A. Smetters, 2004. "Health Shocks and the Demand for Annuities: Technical Paper 2004-09," Working Papers 15868, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. Cannon, Edmund & Tonks, Ian, 2016. "Cohort mortality risk or adverse selection in annuity markets?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 68-81.
    14. Ben Heijdra & Laurie Reijnders, 2012. "Adverse Selection in Private Annuity Markets and the Role of Mandatory Social Annuitization," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 311-337, September.
    15. Besendorfer, Daniel & Greulich, A. Katharina, 2001. "Company pensions and taxation," Discussion Papers 94, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    16. Johann K. Brunner & Susanne Pech, 2005. "Adverse Selection in the Annuity Market When Profits Vary over the Time of Retirement," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 161(1), pages 155-183, March.
    17. Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Leifels, Arne, 2006. "Heterogenous life expectancy, adverse selection, and retirement behaviour," FZG Discussion Papers 13, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    18. Susanne Pech, 2002. "Tax incentives for private life annuities and the social security reform: Effects on consumption and on adverse selection," Economics working papers 2002-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    19. Roozbeh Hosseini, 2015. "Adverse Selection in the Annuity Market and the Role for Social Security," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 941-984.
    20. Oded Palmon & Avia Spivak, 2007. "Adverse selection and the market for annuities," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 37-59, June.

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