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Forecasting Investment Needs In South Africa'S Electricity And Telecom Sectors

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  • żeljko Bogetić
  • Johannes W. Fedderke

Abstract

The paper uses 52‐country panel‐data for the period 1980‐2002 to estimate demand for electricity and telecom services and, based on these estimates, project investment needs in South Africa through 2010 for two growth scenarios. Projections of average annual investment needs in electricity and telecom for the current growth scenario (3.6% per annum) are of the order of 0.2% and 0.75% of GDP, respectively. An alternative, accelerated growth scenario (6% per annum) implies an approximate doubling of investment needs in these sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • żeljko Bogetić & Johannes W. Fedderke, 2006. "Forecasting Investment Needs In South Africa'S Electricity And Telecom Sectors," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 557-574, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:74:y:2006:i:3:p:557-574
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00079.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zeljko Bogetic & Johannes Fedderke, 2005. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Benchmarking, Productivity and Investment Needs, paper presented at Economic Society of South Africa (ESSA) Conference, Durban, 9/7-9/2005," Public Economics 0510006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
    6. Marianne Fay & Danny Leipziger & Quentin Wodon & Tito Yepes, 2003. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : The role of infrastructure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3163, The World Bank.
    7. Fay, Marianne, 2001. "Financing the future : infrastructure needs in Latin America, 2000-05," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2545, The World Bank.
    8. Randolph, Susan & Bogetic, Zeljko & Hefley, Dennis, 1996. "Determinants of public expenditure on infrastructure : transportation and communication," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1661, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chandan Sharma & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2011. "Estimating Infrastructural Investment Needs for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 221-243, May.
    2. Zhang, Yin-Fang & Ji, Shengbao, 2018. "Does infrastructure have a transitory or longer-term impact? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 195-207.
    3. Thomas M. Fullerton & George Novela & David Torres & Adam G. Walke, 2015. "Metropolitan Econometric Electric Utility Forecast Accuracy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 738-745.
    4. Harris, Tom & Collinson, Mark & Wittenberg, Martin, 2017. "Aiming for a Moving Target: The Dynamics of Household Electricity Connections in a Developing Context," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 14-26.

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