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Exploring the geographical variations and influencing factors of poverty in Nigeria

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  • Richard Adeleke
  • Opeyemi Alabede
  • Michael Joel
  • Emmanuel Ashibuogwu

Abstract

The high rate of poverty in Nigeria is alarming with over 105 million people living in poverty. Despite the significant proportion of the population living in poverty in the country and the obvious spatial variations, there is scant evidence regarding the spatial factors driving the variations, leading to ineffectual policies for tackling the problem. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze the geographical distribution of poverty and the predictors across Nigeria with a view to providing spatially explicit policies to curb the high poverty rates. The data were obtained from the United Nations Development Program Report and the National Bureau of Statistics. Spatial statistics of global and local Moran's indexes, ordinary least squares regression, and the geographically weighted regression techniques were adopted for the data analysis. Noticeable geographical variations in poverty rates in the country were observed, with high clusters in northern Nigeria. Moreover, the predictors of poverty differed significantly across the country, following socioeconomic pathways and location. While the illiteracy rate and location (distance to the coast) were predictors of poverty in northern Nigeria, unemployment was more of a predictor in southern Nigeria. The study recommends spatially explicit policies to curb poverty in the country. El elevado índice de pobreza en Nigeria es alarmante: más de 105 millones de personas viven en la pobreza. A pesar de la importante proporción de población que vive en la pobreza en el país y de las evidentes variaciones espaciales, apenas existen pruebas sobre los factores espaciales que provocan las variaciones, lo que conduce a políticas ineficaces para abordar el problema. Así pues, el objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la distribución geográfica de la pobreza y los factores predictivos en toda Nigeria, con vistas a proporcionar políticas espacialmente explícitas para frenar las elevadas tasas de pobreza. Los datos se obtuvieron del Informe del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo y de la Oficina Nacional de Estadística. Para el análisis de los datos se usaron los estadísticos espaciales de los índices de Moran global y local, la regresión por mínimos cuadrados ordinarios y las técnicas de regresión ponderada geográficamente. Se observaron notables variaciones geográficas en las tasas de pobreza del país, con núcleos de elevada pobreza en el norte de Nigeria. Además, los factores predictivos de la pobreza fueron significativamente diferentes en todo el país, en función de las vías socioeconómicas y la ubicación. Mientras que la tasa de analfabetismo y la ubicación (distancia a la costa) fueron factores predictivos de la pobreza en el norte de Nigeria, el desempleo fue un mejor factor predictivo en el sur del país. El estudio recomienda políticas espacialmente explícitas para frenar la pobreza en el país. ナイジェリアでは1億500万人以上が貧困生活状態にあり、その貧困率の高さは驚異的である。同国では貧困状態にある人口の割合が高いが、その空間的なばらつきが明らかであるにもかかわらず、そのばらつきを引き起こす空間的要因に関するエビデンスはほとんどないために、この問題に対する政策は効果がない。そこで、本稿では、高い貧困率を抑制するための空間的に明確な政策を立てるために、ナイジェリア全土の貧困の地理的分布と予測因子を分析する。データは国連の開発計画報告書と国家統計局から入手した。データ解析には、グローバルおよびローカルのMoranインデックスの空間統計、通常の最小二乗回帰、および地理的に重みづけされた回帰手法を採用した。同国の貧困率には地理的なばらつきが顕著に見られ、ナイジェリア北部に密度の高いクラスターが見られた。さらに、貧困の予測因子は、社会経済的経路と場所によって、国全体で大きく異なっていた。ナイジェリア北部では、非識字率と場所(海岸までの距離)が貧困の予測因子であったのに対し、ナイジェリア南部では失業が貧困の予測因子として多く認められた。結果から、国内の貧困率を抑制するには、空間的に明確な政策を実施することが推奨される。

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Adeleke & Opeyemi Alabede & Michael Joel & Emmanuel Ashibuogwu, 2023. "Exploring the geographical variations and influencing factors of poverty in Nigeria," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(6), pages 1182-1197, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:15:y:2023:i:6:p:1182-1197
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12621
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    References listed on IDEAS

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