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Endogenous Exchange Rate Volatility, Trading Volume and Interest Rate Differentials in a Model of Portfolio Selection

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  • Hagiwara, May
  • Herce, Miguel A

Abstract

This paper considers a portfolio model of exchange rate determination and focuses on endogenous sources of exchange rate volatility. It is shown that, in addition to volatility transmitted by conditionally heteroskedastic interest rates, the larger the serial correlation in interest rates the stronger the effect of interest rate differentials on exchange rate volatility. These features are supported by the data. The paper also looks at the volume-volatility relationship implied by the model. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagiwara, May & Herce, Miguel A, 1999. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Volatility, Trading Volume and Interest Rate Differentials in a Model of Portfolio Selection," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 202-218, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:202-18
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    Cited by:

    1. Heejoon Han & Dennis Kristensen, 2014. "Asymptotic Theory for the QMLE in GARCH-X Models With Stationary and Nonstationary Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 416-429, July.
    2. Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2008. "Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 275-292, October.
    3. Ying-Sing Liu, 2021. "The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    4. Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2012. "ARCH/GARCH with persistent covariate: Asymptotic theory of MLE," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 95-112.
    5. H. J. Turtle & Kainan Wang, 2014. "Modeling Conditional Covariances With Economic Information Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 217-236, April.
    6. Nguyen, Hien Thi & Nguyen, Hoang & Tran, Minh-Ngoc, 2024. "Deep learning enhanced volatility modeling with covariates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    7. Carlson, J.A: Osler, C.L., 1998. "Determinants of Currency Risk Premiums," Papers 98-006, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
    8. Francq, Christian & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2017. "An equation-by-equation estimator of a multivariate log-GARCH-X model of financial returns," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 16-32.
    9. Richard Ashley, 2012. "On the Origins of Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 28, pages 5-25.
    10. Nessrine Hamzaoui & Boutheina Regaieg, 2016. "The Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic approach to investigating the foreign exchange forward premium volatility," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1608-1615.
    11. Bu, Ruijun & Kim, Jihyun & Wang, Bin, 2023. "Uniform and Lp convergences for nonparametric continuous time regressions with semiparametric applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1934-1954.
    12. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
    13. Turtle, H.J. & Wang, Kainan, 2016. "The benefits of improved covariance estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 233-246.

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