IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v31y2023i2p522-549.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Third‐country exchange rate effects on foreign direct investment flows: A global vector autoregessive approach

Author

Listed:
  • Todd Sarnstrom
  • Michael Ryan

Abstract

We employ global vector autoregessive estimation to examine bilateral and third‐country exchange rate effects on U.S. FDI outflows. Our bilateral results mimic previous work on the topic and indicate host currency depreciation decreases FDI inflows. However, in contrast, third‐country exchange rates also decrease U.S. FDI outflows to those hosts. We find these exchange rate impacts are short‐lived and small relative to quarterly average U.S. outflows. This suggests a potential explanation for the mixed results in the exchange rate FDI literature; while exchange rates may have significant statistical impact on U.S. FDI outflows, typically they are not economically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd Sarnstrom & Michael Ryan, 2023. "Third‐country exchange rate effects on foreign direct investment flows: A global vector autoregessive approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 522-549, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:31:y:2023:i:2:p:522-549
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12636
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12636
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/roie.12636?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    4. Klein, Michael W. & Rosengren, Eric, 1994. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States : Relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 373-389, May.
    5. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    6. Boateng, Agyenim & Hua, Xiuping & Nisar, Shaista & Wu, Junjie, 2015. "Examining the determinants of inward FDI: Evidence from Norway," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 118-127.
    7. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    8. Karolina Ekholm & Rikard Forslid & James R. Markusen, 2021. "Export-Platform Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 6, pages 111-130, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    11. KaSaundra M. Tomlin, 2000. "The Effects of Model Specification on Foreign Direct Investment Models: An Application of Count Data Models," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(2), pages 460-468, October.
    12. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    13. Takagi, Shinji & Shi, Zongying, 2011. "Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 265-272.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, September.
    15. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 3, pages 89-120, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat & Babuscu, Senol & Hazar, Adalet, 2018. "Exchange rate risk and international trade: The role of third country effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 152-155.
    17. KaSaundra M. Tomlin, 2000. "The Effects of Model Specification on Foreign Direct Investment Models: An Application of Count Data Models," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(2), pages 460-468, July.
    18. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2017. "Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 45-90, October.
    19. Kogut, Bruce & Chang, Sea Jin, 1996. "Platform Investments and Volatility Exchange Rates: Direct Investment in the U.S. by Japanese Electronic Companies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 221-231, May.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    21. Yeaple, Stephen Ross, 2003. "The complex integration strategies of multinationals and cross country dependencies in the structure of foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 293-314, August.
    22. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    23. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    24. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2007. "Estimating models of complex FDI: Are there third-country effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 260-281, September.
    25. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 530-536, June.
    26. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
    27. Matthew Greenwood‐Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2012. "Probabilistic forecasting of output growth, inflation and the balance of trade in a GVAR framework," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 554-573, June.
    28. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    29. Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-622, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hany Abdel-Latif & Tapas Mishra & Anita Staneva, 2019. "Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "The Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rates: An Interconnection Approach in ASEAN," MPRA Paper 104596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    4. Chia‐Ching Lin & Kun‐Ming Chen, 2022. "Market competition, exchange rate uncertainty, and foreign direct investment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 405-422, February.
    5. Artha Hoxha, 2018. "Explaining the impact of the global financial crisis on European transition countries: a GVAR approach," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2-18, pages 81-97.
    6. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    8. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    9. Koukouritakis, Minoas & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2015. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European countries: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 129-154.
    10. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    11. Chiara Franco & Francesco Rentocchini & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2008. "Why do firms invest abroad? An analysis of the motives underlying Foreign Direct Investments," Department of Economics Working Papers 0817, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    12. Alexander Chudik & Vanessa Smith, 2013. "The GVAR approach and the dominance of the U.S. economy," Globalization Institute Working Papers 136, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
    14. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P., 2019. "Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 142-160.
    15. Mohsen Khezri & Muhamed Zulkhibri & Reza Ghazal, 2019. "Regional Integration, Monetary Cooperation: Evidence from Global VAR Models for the Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 11(1-2), pages 65-79, January.
    16. Kubo, Akihiro, 2019. "A note on determinants of Japanese foreign direct investment in Southeast Asia, 2008–2015," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 192-196.
    17. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka S. & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Global imbalances, external adjustment and propagated shocks: An African perspective from a global VAR model," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 186-203.
    18. Alba, Joseph D. & Park, Donghyun & Wang, Peiming, 2009. "Corporate Governance and Merger and Acquisition Foreign Direct Investment: Firm-level Evidence from Japanese Foreign Direct Investment into the US," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 147, Asian Development Bank.
    19. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco, 2014. "A global VAR model for the analysis of wheat export prices," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182723, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:31:y:2023:i:2:p:522-549. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.