IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v30y2022i4p939-970.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Silver, fiduciary money, and the Chinese economy, 1890–1935

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Chen
  • Dan Li
  • Yiqing Xie

Abstract

There are debates in the existing literature over whether silver outflows from China due to the American Silver Purchase Act (ASPA) of 1934 resulted in an economic crisis in China. However, all arguments in the debate rely on the assertion that the ASPA caused severe deflation—a claim with weak support in the data. In this paper, we investigate the bigger picture by using a newly consolidated historical Chinese dataset covering 1890–1935 to investigate the long‐run relationship of silver outflows, international trade, and fiduciary money. We find a mitigation effect of terms of trade after a decrease in the silver price triggered silver outflows from 1890 to 1934. More importantly, we find that the issue of fiduciary money was responsive to silver outflows such that China's aggregate money supply was not severely affected by the outflows. As a result, we clarify the puzzle of why China encountered neither serious deflation nor an economic crisis when the ASPA occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Chen & Dan Li & Yiqing Xie, 2022. "Silver, fiduciary money, and the Chinese economy, 1890–1935," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 939-970, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:30:y:2022:i:4:p:939-970
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12590
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/roie.12590?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacks, David S. & Yan, Se & Zhao, Liuyan, 2017. "Silver points, silver flows, and the measure of Chinese financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 377-386.
    2. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    3. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, February.
    4. Wolfgang Keller & Ben Li & Carol H. Shiue, 2011. "China’s Foreign Trade: Perspectives From the Past 150 Years," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(6), pages 853-892, June.
    5. Rawski, Thomas G, 1993. "Milton Friedman, Silver, and China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 755-758, August.
    6. Vahagn Galstyan & Philip R. Lane, 2008. "External Imbalances and the Extensive Margin of Trade," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(3), pages 241-257, November.
    7. Kris James Mitchener & Se Yan, 2014. "Globalization, Trade, And Wages: What Does History Tell Us About China?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 131-168, February.
    8. Liuyan Zhao & Yan Zhao, 2018. "Alfred Marshall, Silver, and China," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(2), pages 153-175, July.
    9. Angela Redish, 1993. "Anchors Aweigh: The Transition from Commodity Money to Fiat Money in Western Economies," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 777-795, November.
    10. Brandt, Loren & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Interpreting new evidence about China and U.S. silver purchases," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 31-51, January.
    11. Li, Yiting, 1995. "Commodity money under private information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 573-592, December.
    12. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    13. Carol H. Shiue & Wolfgang Keller, 2007. "Markets in China and Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1189-1216, September.
    14. Kris James Mitchener & Se Yan, 2014. "Globalization, Trade, And Wages: What Does History Tell Us About China?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 131-168, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    2. Keller, Wolfgang & Andres Santiago, Javier & Shiue, Carol H., 2017. "China's domestic trade during the Treaty-Port Era," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-43.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2013. "Varieties and the transfer problem," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-12.
    4. Loren Brandt & Debin Ma & Thomas G. Rawski, 2014. "From Divergence to Convergence: Reevaluating the History behind China's Economic Boom," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 45-123, March.
    5. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    6. Hamano, Masashige, 2014. "The Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect and endogenous extensive margins," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 98-113.
    7. Vahagn Galstyan, 2015. "Productivity, Trade, and Relative Prices in a Ricardian World," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 817-838, September.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ma, Debin & Zhao, Liuyan, 2020. "A silver transformation: Chinese monetary integration in times of political disintegration, 1898–1933," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104056, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue, 2020. "China’s Foreign Trade and Investment, 1800-1950," NBER Working Papers 27558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ma, Debin & Zhao, Liuyan, 2019. "A Silver Transformation: Chinese Monetary Integration in Times of Political Disintegration during 1898-1933," CEPR Discussion Papers 13501, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Jacks, David S. & Yan, Se & Zhao, Liuyan, 2017. "Silver points, silver flows, and the measure of Chinese financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 377-386.
    13. Bo, Shiyu & Chen, Ting & Liu, Cong, 2022. "Trade shocks, industrial growth, and electrification in early 20th-century China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 732-749.
    14. Ho, Tai-kuang & Lai, Cheng-chung, 2013. "Silver fetters? The rise and fall of the Chinese price level 1928–34," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 446-462.
    15. Braggion, Fabio & Manconi, Alberto & Zhu, Haikun, 2020. "Credit and social unrest: Evidence from 1930s China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 295-315.
    16. Geoffrey Barrows & Hélène Ollivier & Ariell Reshef, 2023. "Production Function Estimation with Multi-Destination Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 10716, CESifo.
    17. Redding, Stephen & Weinstein, David, 2017. "Aggregating From Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 12446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Robert Z. Lawrence & Lawrence Edward, 2010. "Do Developed and Developing Countries Compete Head to Head in High Tech?," Working Paper Series WP10-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    19. Hamano, Masashige, 2013. "The consumption-real exchange rate anomaly with extensive margins," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 26-46.
    20. David O. Argente & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Munseob Lee, 2020. "Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the US," NBER Working Papers 27806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Giuntella, Osea & Rieger, Matthias & Rotunno, Lorenzo, 2020. "Weight gains from trade in foods: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:30:y:2022:i:4:p:939-970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.