IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v29y2021i4p904-926.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic instability and targeting rules for monetary policy in an endogenously growing small open economy

Author

Listed:
  • Kuan‐jen Chen
  • Ching‐chong Lai
  • Ting‐wei Lai

Abstract

By using the feature that money can lower unit transaction costs, this paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model for a one‐sector small open economy, and uses it to examine the possibility of the occurrence of belief‐driven fluctuations. It is found that the emergence of belief‐driven fluctuations is crucially related to targeting rules for monetary policy. More specifically, when the monetary authorities target the specific money growth rate, macroeconomic instability generated by belief‐driven fluctuations can arise even if labor externalities are totally absent. This finding runs in sharp contrast to the Benhabib–Farmer assertion needed for the occurrence of belief‐driven fluctuations. It is also found that, when the monetary authorities target the specific inflation rate, macroeconomic instability generated by belief‐driven fluctuations can never prevail regardless of the extent of the unit transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuan‐jen Chen & Ching‐chong Lai & Ting‐wei Lai, 2021. "Macroeconomic instability and targeting rules for monetary policy in an endogenously growing small open economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 904-926, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:29:y:2021:i:4:p:904-926
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12514
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/roie.12514?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nourzad, Farrokh, 2002. "Real money balances and production efficiency: a panel-data stochastic production frontier study," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 125-134, March.
    2. Suen, Ming-Hon & Yip, Chong K., 2005. "Superneutrality, indeterminacy and endogenous growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 579-595, December.
    3. Itaya, Jun-Ichi & Mino, Kazuo, 2007. "Technology, Preference Structure, And The Growth Effect Of Money Supply," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 589-612, November.
    4. Juin-jen Chang & Chun-chieh Huang & Hsiao-wen Hung, 2011. "Monopoly Power, Increasing Returns to Variety, and Local Indeterminacy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 384-388, April.
    5. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 1995. "Interest rate rules vs. money growth rules a welfare comparison in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 247-267, November.
    6. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    7. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E. A., 1996. "Indeterminacy and sector-specific externalities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 421-443, June.
    8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    9. Hu, Yunfang & Mino, Kazuo, 2013. "Trade structure and belief-driven fluctuations in a global economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 414-424.
    10. Sinai, Allen & Stokes, Houston H, 1972. "Real Money Balances: An Omitted Variable from the Production Functions?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(3), pages 290-296, August.
    11. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
    12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
    13. Jha, Sailesh K. & Wang, Ping & Yip, Chong K., 2002. "Dynamics in a transactions-based monetary growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 611-635, April.
    14. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Models and Their Uses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 489-494.
    15. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    16. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2017. "Balanced-budget income taxes and aggregate stability in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 90-101.
    17. Zhang, Junxi, 2000. "Inflation and Growth: Pecuniary Transactions Costs and Qualitative Equivalence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 1-12, February.
    18. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-684, November.
    19. Lai, Ching-Chong & Chin, Chi-Ting, 2013. "Monetary Rules And Endogenous Growth In An Open Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 431-463, March.
    20. Harrison, Sharon G., 2001. "Indeterminacy in a model with sector-specific externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 747-764, May.
    21. repec:bla:econom:v:70:y:2003:i:279:p:451-470 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Short, Eugenie Dudding, 1979. "A New Look at Real Money Balances as a Variable in the Production Function," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 326-339, August.
    23. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 665-680, May.
    24. Burmeister, Edwin, 1980. "On Some Conceptual Issues in Rational Expectations Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 800-816, November.
    25. Shaw, Ming-Fu & Lai, Ching-Chong & Chang, Wen-Ya, 2005. "Anticipated policy and endogenous growth in a small open monetary economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 719-743, September.
    26. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    27. Garín, Julio & Lester, Robert & Sims, Eric, 2016. "On the desirability of nominal GDP targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 21-44.
    28. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1996. "Fiscal policy, growth, and macroeconomic performance in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 41-66, February.
    29. Kazuo Mino, 2017. "Growth and Business Cycles with Equilibrium Indeterminacy," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-4-431-55609-1, June.
    30. Ching-chong Lai & Chi-ting Chin, 2010. "(In)determinacy, increasing returns, and the optimality of the Friedman rule in an endogenously growing open economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 44(1), pages 69-100, July.
    31. Zhang, Junxi, 1996. "A simple pecuniary model of money and growth with transactions cost," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 127-137.
    32. Chin, Chi-Ting & Guo, Jang-Ting & Lai, Ching-Chong, 2009. "Macroeconomic (in)stability under real interest rate targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1631-1638, September.
    33. Meng, Qinglai & Velasco, Andres, 2004. "Market imperfections and the instability of open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 503-519, December.
    34. Bruckner, Matthias & Schabert, Andreas, 2003. "Supply-side effects of monetary policy and equilibrium multiplicity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 205-211, May.
    35. Dowd, Kevin, 1990. "The Value of Time and the Transactions Demand for Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 51-64, February.
    36. Qinglai Meng & Andrés Velasco, 2003. "Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 22(3), pages 661-669, October.
    37. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
    38. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ching-chong Lai & Chi-ting Chin, 2010. "(In)determinacy, increasing returns, and the optimality of the Friedman rule in an endogenously growing open economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 44(1), pages 69-100, July.
    2. Zhang, Yan, 2020. "Stabilization policy and indeterminacy in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 159-167.
    3. Lai, Ching-Chong & Chin, Chi-Ting, 2013. "Monetary Rules And Endogenous Growth In An Open Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 431-463, March.
    4. Chen, Been-Lon & Hu, Yunfang & Mino, Kazuo, 2020. "Income Taxation Rules and Stability of a Small Open Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Kevin X. D. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Money growth targeting and indeterminacy in small open economies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(3), pages 499-535, October.
    6. Been-Lon Chen & Yunfang Hu & Kazuo Mino, 2018. "Does Nonlinear Taxation Stabilize Small Open Economies?," KIER Working Papers 997, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Juin‐Jen Chang & Jang‐Ting Guo & Wei‐Neng Wang, 2021. "On Endogenous Business Cycles Under Increasing Returns To Variety And Sector‐Specific Externality," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 532-548, January.
    8. Chen, Shu-hua & Shaw, Ming-fu & Lai, Ching-chong & Chang, Juin-jen, 2008. "Interest-rate rules and transitional dynamics in an endogenously growing open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 54-75, February.
    9. Chin, Chi-Ting & Guo, Jang-Ting & Lai, Ching-Chong, 2009. "Macroeconomic (in)stability under real interest rate targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1631-1638, September.
    10. Sergey Slobodyan, 2004. "One Sector Models, Indeterminacy, and Productive Public Spending," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 314, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small, Open Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 10, pages 275-298, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2004. "Foreign Trade and Equilibrium Indeterminacy," NIPE Working Papers 5/2004, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    13. Shaw, Ming-Fu & Lai, Ching-Chong & Chang, Wen-Ya, 2005. "Anticipated policy and endogenous growth in a small open monetary economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 719-743, September.
    14. Yan Zhang, 2008. "Does the Utility Function Form Matter for Indeterminacy in a Two Sector Small Open Economy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 91-101, May.
    15. Chu, Angus C. & Liao, Chih-Hsing & Liu, Xiangbo & Zhang, Mengbo, 2021. "Indeterminacy in a matching model of money with productive government expenditure," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 497-516.
    16. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng, 2014. "Returns to Scale, Market Power, and the Nature of Price Rigidity in New Keynesian Models with Self‐Fulfilling Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 293-320, March.
    17. Been-Lon Chen & Yunfang Hu & Kazuo Mino, 2016. "Stabilization Effects of Taxation Rules in Small-Open Economies with Endogenous Growth," KIER Working Papers 946, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    18. Keiichi Morimoto & Takeo Hori & Noritaka Maebayashi & Koichi Futagami, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Macroeconomic Stability, and Welfare under Fiscal Discipline in a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-07, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    19. Liutang Gong & Wei Wang, 2020. "Self‐fulfilling patience," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 336-357, December.
    20. Patrick Pintus, 2004. "International Capital Mobility and Aggregate Volatility: the Case of Credit-Rationed Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 193, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:29:y:2021:i:4:p:904-926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.