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Soft power and exports

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  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

This paper seeks to help establish a stylized fact: a country’s exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries. I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey that asks people in up to 157 countries whether they approve of the job performance of the leadership of China, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Holding other things constant, a country’s exports are higher if its leadership is approved by the importer—“soft power” promotes exports. The soft power effect is statistically and economically significant; a 1% increase in leadership approval raises exports by around two‐thirds of a percent. This effect is reasonably robust, and different measures of soft power deliver similar results. I conservatively estimate that the >20 percentage point decline in foreign approval of American leadership between 2016 (the final year of Obama’s presidency) and 2017 (Trump’s first year) lowered American exports by at least U.S.$3 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "Soft power and exports," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1573-1590, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:27:y:2019:i:5:p:1573-1590
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12435
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    Cited by:

    1. Asmus, Gerda & Eichenauer, Vera & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley, 2021. "Does India use development finance to compete with China? A subnational analysis," Kiel Working Papers 2189, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Yu, Zhen & Li, Yuankun & Xie, Xubin, 2021. "Long-term trade impact of epidemic outbreaks: Is it V-shaped?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 16-40.
    3. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Steven Yamarik & Mariya Mileva, 2023. "Cultural institutes: Networks and determinants," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 1119-1143, April.
    5. Wellner, Lukas & Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley & Strange, Austin M., 2022. "Can aid buy foreign public support? Evidence from Chinese development finance," Kiel Working Papers 2214, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Plouffe, Michael, 2024. "The Public and the Assembly: Foreign Public Opinion and Voting in the UNGA," OSF Preprints pu2yv, Center for Open Science.
    7. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    8. Joachim Wagner, 2020. "Soft power and Germany's exports - First evidence from transaction data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 624-631.
    9. Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Fuchs, Andreas & Brückner, Lutz, 2021. "The effects of trade, aid, and investment on China's image in Latin America," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 483-498.
    10. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2023. "Political ties and the yield curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    11. Wenshou Yan & Xi Yang, 2019. "A New Motivation for Sustainable Trade Between Countries with Different Regulatory Qualities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    12. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2021. "Quid pro quo? Political ties and sovereign borrowing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Jianhong Qi & Kam Ki Tang & Da Yin & Yong Zhao, 2020. "Remaking China’s Global Image with the Belt and Road Initiative: Is the Jury Out?," Discussion Papers Series 635, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    14. Olivier Bertrand & Marie-Ann Betschinger, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between development aid and FDI from developed countries in developing countries: empirical insights from Japanese firm-level data," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 55(6), pages 782-795, August.

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