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Forecasting Housing Markets: Lessons Learned

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  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • John C. Weicher

Abstract

Forecasting changes in housing finance (instruments and institutions), housing demand (tenure, quantity, and real price), and housing production requires forecasting numerous exogenous factors—inflation, government policy, and demographic forces being the most obvious—and interpreting their impacts on the housing market. We use forecasts made over the last two decades to illustrate the importance of these variables and of interpreting their impacts appropriately.

Suggested Citation

  • Patric H. Hendershott & John C. Weicher, 2002. "Forecasting Housing Markets: Lessons Learned," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:30:y:2002:i:1:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00027
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    Cited by:

    1. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2008. "El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Angelos Mimis & Antonis Rovolis & Marianthi Stamou, 2013. "Property valuation with artificial neural network: the case of Athens," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 128-143, June.
    3. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598, December.
    4. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2007. "Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 33-42.
    5. Rapach, David E. & Strauss, Jack K., 2009. "Differences in housing price forecastability across US states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 351-372.
    6. Sanders, Anthony, 2008. "The subprime crisis and its role in the financial crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 254-261, December.

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