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Mortgage Borrower Repayment Behavior: A Microeconomic Analysis with Canadian Adjustable Rate Mortgage Data

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  • Peter M. Zorn
  • Michael J. Lea

Abstract

In this paper we estimate a model of mortgage borrower behavior using micro‐level data on Canadian borrowers with rollover mortgages—a form of adjustable‐rate mortgage. Our results suggest that the probability of default rises with a decrease in housing equity and an increase in the mortgage contract rate; however the size of these changes is relatively small. They also show that partial prepayment is sensitive to fluctuations in the rates of return from investing in housing versus other assets. For the United States experience, our results suggest that, relative to fixed‐rate mortgage borrowers, adjustable‐rate mortgage borrowers are more likely to default and less likely to prepay.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter M. Zorn & Michael J. Lea, 1989. "Mortgage Borrower Repayment Behavior: A Microeconomic Analysis with Canadian Adjustable Rate Mortgage Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 118-136, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:17:y:1989:i:1:p:118-136
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00477
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    Cited by:

    1. Luci Ellis, 2005. "Disinflation and the dynamics of mortgage debt," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 5-20, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2006. "Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 215-240.
    3. Patel, Nimesh & Daglish, Toby, 2011. "Fixed come hell or high water? Selection and prepayment of fixed rate mortgages outside the US," Working Paper Series 4107, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    4. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
    5. Fortin, Nicole M, 1995. "Allocation Inflexibilities, Female Labor Supply, and Housing Assets Accumulation: Are Women Working to Pay the Mortgage?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(3), pages 524-557, July.
    6. Thomas M. Springer & Neil G. Waller, 1993. "Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 27-46, March.
    7. Nai Jia Lee, 2003. "Expected Return of Housing and Mortgage Termination," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 75-101.
    8. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19215 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Min Qi & Harald Scheule & Yan Zhang, 2021. "Positive Payment Shocks, Liquidity and Refinance Constraints and Default Risk of Home Equity Lines of Credit at End of Draw," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 423-454, April.
    10. Patel, Nimesh & Daglish, Toby, 2011. "Fixed come hell or high water? Selection and prepayment of fixed rate mortgages outside the US," Working Paper Series 19215, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    11. Marsha J. Courchane & Judith A. Giles, 2002. "A Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Residential Mortgage Markets," Econometrics Working Papers 0201, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    12. Lee, Nai Jia & Ong, Seow Eng, 2005. "Upward mobility, house price volatility, and housing equity," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 127-146, June.
    13. Seow Ong & Tien Sing & Alan Teo, 2007. "Delinquency and Default in Arms: The Effects of Protected Equity and Loss Aversion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 253-280, October.

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