IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rdevec/v19y2015i1p196-207.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU: The Role of Bilateral Trade and FDI

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios Asteriou
  • Argiro Moudatsou

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of business cycle (BC) synchronization across 21 (old and new) countries of the enlarged European Union (EU). It utilizes international data to evaluate the linkages among bilateral trade in goods, bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and BC co-movements. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the relationship using the latest available data (sample range: 1998–2011), and thus taking into account the European sovereign debt crisis period. It also examines the role of FDI, which though increasingly important in the flows of international production factors, is currently neglected by the literature. Preliminary results show that FDI has no direct effect on BC synchronization while international trade helps to synchronize BCs but only before the recent financial crisis (pre-2008) and only for the traditional EU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Asteriou & Argiro Moudatsou, 2015. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU: The Role of Bilateral Trade and FDI," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 196-207, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:196-207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/rode.12134
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Claudia M. Buch & Alexander Lipponer, 2005. "Business Cycles and FDI: Evidence from German Sectoral Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(4), pages 732-759, December.
    3. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    4. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    5. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    7. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-132, January.
    8. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 168-189, February.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    11. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.
    12. Luca Agnello & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Fiscal Adjustments and Business Cycle Synchronization," CESifo Working Paper Series 4505, CESifo.
    13. Imbs, Jean, 2006. "The real effects of financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-324, March.
    14. Greenaway, David & Görg, Holger, 2002. "Much Ado About Nothing? Do Domestic Firms Really Benefit from Foreign Investment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
    16. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    17. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald & Peter Sanfey, 1996. "Wages, Profits, and Rent-Sharing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(1), pages 227-251.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2011. "Europe Agreements and Trade Balance: Evidence from Four New EU Members," CESifo Working Paper Series 3340, CESifo.
    19. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    20. W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," Macroeconomics 0402029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 2010. "Inflation targeting and business cycle synchronization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 704-727, June.
    22. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, August.
    23. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    24. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    25. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Cerqueira, Pedro André & Martins, Rodrigo, 2009. "Measuring the determinants of business cycle synchronization using a panel approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 106-108, February.
    27. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2000. "Financial Contagion in Five Small Open Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Really Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 25-51, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    2. Igor Velickovski & Aleksandar Stojkov & Ivana Rajkovic, 2017. "DIS Union of the Core and the Periphery," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 159-174.
    3. Kinfack, Emilie & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "Trade Linkages and Business Cycle Co-movement: Analysis of Trade between African Economies and their Main Trading partners," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 275-306.
    4. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 617-641, October.
    5. Elena Kostenko & Vitaly Kostenko & Volodymyr Kuznichenko & Volodymyr Lapshyn, 2017. "International trade in Ukraine¡¯s regions during 2016 is analyzed. The taxonomy method is used to carry out a multidimensional analysis of the state of trade in all regions, with the goal of determini," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 64-74, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S颡stien Wälti, 2012. "The myth of decoupling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3407-3419, September.
    2. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    3. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2023. "Synchronization patterns in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2038-2059, April.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5q8fnecj1u87ka099dc571bhi2 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5q8fnecj1u87ka099dc571bhi2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    8. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "The endogeneity of business cycle synchronisation in SADC: A GMM approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1358914-135, January.
    9. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    10. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
    11. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249.
    12. Ionuț JIANU, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 19-32, Summer.
    13. Wälti, Sébastien, 2010. "No decoupling, more interdependence: business cycle comovements between advanced and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 20869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ionut Jianu, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Papers 2007.11407, arXiv.org.
    15. Fries, Claudia & Kappler, Marcus, 2015. "Does foreign direct investment synchronise business cycles? Results from a panel approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Jianu, Ionut, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 19-32.
    17. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    18. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
    19. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    20. Wälti, Sébastien, 2009. "Business cycle synchronicity, amplitude and the euro: one size does not yet fit all," MPRA Paper 21065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    22. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:196-207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.