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Financial Contagion in Five Small Open Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Really Matter?

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  • Zsolt Darvas
  • György Szapáry

Abstract

This paper examines the spillover effects of the global financial crises of 1997–9 on five small open economies with different types of exchange rate regimes: the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Israel and Poland. We found empirical evidence that the regional aspect played a dominant role in the intensity of the spillover effects. We found no empirical evidence that the pressures on exchange rates, interest rates and stock markets were primarily influenced by the exchange rate regime in place. Our findings do not support the commonly held view that flexible regimes are the best choice for small open emerging market economies exposed to volatile capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2000. "Financial Contagion in Five Small Open Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Really Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 25-51, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:1:p:25-51
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-2362.00041
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios Asteriou & Argiro Moudatsou, 2015. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU: The Role of Bilateral Trade and FDI," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 196-207, February.
    2. Andreou, Irène & Dufrénot, Gilles, 2009. "A Forewarning Indicator System for Financial Crises: the Case of Six Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 87-115.
    3. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    4. Jokipii, Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2007. "Contagion and interdependence: Measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.
    5. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Nolte, Sandra, 2017. "Diversifying away the risk of war and cross-border political crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 494-510.
    6. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Ron P. McIver & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "Network Interdependence and Optimization of Bank Portfolios from Developed and Emerging Asia Pacific Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(4), pages 613-647, December.
    7. Hochreiter, Eduard, 2000. "Exchange rate regimes and capital mobility: issues and some lessons from central and eastern European applicant countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 155-171, December.
    8. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    10. Szapáry, György, 2000. "Az árfolyamrendszer kiválasztása az átmenet országaiban az EMU-csatlakozás előtt [Choice of exchange-rate regime in transition countries before joining the EMU]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 951-961.
    11. Zsolt Darvas, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in the New EU Member States: Evidence from Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregression," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 140-155.
    12. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    13. Jose Arreola Hernandez & Sang Hoon Kang & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2022. "Interdependence and portfolio optimisation of bank equity returns from developed and emerging Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 678-696, January.
    14. Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Kang, Sang Hoon & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Aleš Bulíø, 2005. "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 206-231, May.
    16. Serwa, Dobromil & Bohl, Martin T., 2005. "Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 344-362, September.
    17. David Gray, 2014. "Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 550-567, June.
    18. Ales Bulir, 2003. "Some Exchange Rates Are More Stable than Others: Short-Run Evidence from Transition Countries," Working Papers 2003/05, Czech National Bank.
    19. Jokipii, Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2007. "Contagion and interdependence: Measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.

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