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The Underlying Link between Fiscal Policy Patterns and International Reserves

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  • Yan Zhou

Abstract

This paper extends the model in Aizenman and Marion (2004) to study the underlying link and interaction between fiscal policy patterns and international reserves in developing countries. It shows that because of conditional access to international credit markets, the immediate impact of an adverse shock on an emerging economy is a lower level of international reserves and a procyclical fiscal policy. However, facing the uncertainty of future shocks, the authorities in this economy then have a strong incentive to hoard more precautionary reserves if possible. If the economy successfully accumulates more reserves, it can have a lower tax rate in the second period and its fiscal policy would be more countercyclical. The model's predictions are consistent with new empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Zhou, 2010. "The Underlying Link between Fiscal Policy Patterns and International Reserves," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 712-725, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:14:y:2010:i:4:p:712-725
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2010.00583.x
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    2. Binjian, Binjian & Sakamoto, Hiroshi, 2013. "Market Reform and Income Distribution in China : A CGE–Microsimulation Approach," AGI Working Paper Series 2013-13, Asian Growth Research Institute.

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