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Application of the dynamic spatial ordered probit model: Patterns of land development change in Austin, Texas

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  • Xiaokun Wang
  • Kara M. Kockelman

Abstract

The evolution of land development in urban area has been of great interest to policy‐makers and planners. Due to the complexity of the land development process, no existing studies are considered sophisticated enough. This research uses the dynamic spatial ordered probit (DSOP) model to analyse Austin's land use intensity patterns over a 4‐point panel. The observational units are 300 m × 300 m grid cells derived from satellite images. The sample contains 2,771 such grid cells, spread among 57 zip code regions. The marginal effects of control variables suggest that increases in travel times to central business district (CBD) substantially reduce land development intensity. More important, temporal and spatial autocorrelation effects are significantly positive, showing the superiority of the DSOP model. The derived parameters are used to predict future land development patterns, along with associated uncertainty in each grid cell's prediction. Resumen La evolución del desarrollo del suelo en áreas urbanas ha sido de gran interés para formuladores de políticas y urbanistas. Debido a la complejidad del proceso de desarrollo urbano, se considera que los estudios existentes no son lo suficientemente sofisticados. Este estudio utiliza el modelo probit ordenado espacial dinámico (DSOP, por sus siglas en inglés) para analizar los patrones de intensidad de uso del suelo sobre un panel de 4 puntos. Las unidades de estudio son celdas en una malla de 300m x 300 m a partir de imágenes de satélite. La muestra contiene 2,771 de estas celdas, distribuidas entre 57 regiones de códigos postales. Los efectos marginales de las variables de control sugieren que los incrementos en la duración de los desplazamientos al distrito central de negocios (CBD, por sus siglas en inglés) reducen sustancialmente la intensidad del desarrollo urbano del suelo. Con mayor importancia, los efectos de autocorrelación temporal y espacial son significativamente positivos, mostrando la superioridad del modelo DSOP. Los parámetros derivados son utilizados para predecir patrones futuros de desarrollo urbano del suelo, junto con la incertidumbre asociada a la predicción para cada celda de la malla.

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  • Xiaokun Wang & Kara M. Kockelman, 2009. "Application of the dynamic spatial ordered probit model: Patterns of land development change in Austin, Texas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 345-365, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:88:y:2009:i:2:p:345-365
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2009.00249.x
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