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Fertility and Family Dynamics in the Aftermath of the COVID‐19 Pandemic

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  • Natalie Nitsche
  • Joshua Wilde

Abstract

When the COVID‐19 pandemic began in early 2020, speculation was rife both in public and academic spheres over its possible effects on birth rates and partnership behavior. Now, over four years later, we still know surprisingly little about the effect of COVID‐19 on fertility and family dynamics. In this paper, we outline three main takeaways from the scientific literature produced on this topic in the past four years. We argue that (1) we still do not have enough data to answer basic questions about the effect of COVID‐19 on fertility and family dynamics, (2) the data we do have suggest an unexpectedly incoherent and heterogeneous response, and (3) the estimated effects we do have are suspect since shifting and theoretically unexpected prepandemic fertility behavior made identifying a strict causal effect of the pandemic problematic.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalie Nitsche & Joshua Wilde, 2024. "Fertility and Family Dynamics in the Aftermath of the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(S1), pages 9-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:50:y:2024:i:s1:p:9-22
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12648
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jasilioniene, Aiva & Jasilionis, Domantas & Jdanov, Dmitri & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2024. "Exploring associations between the Covid-19 vaccination campaign and fertility trends: A population-level analysis for 22 countries," SocArXiv 46qdw, Center for Open Science.
    2. Aiva Jasilioniene & Domantas Jasilionis & Dmitri A. Jdanov & Mikko Myrskylä, 2024. "Exploring associations between the Covid-19 vaccination campaign and fertility trends: a population-level analysis for 22 countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 223-260.
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