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Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked?

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  • John Bongaarts
  • Thomas Buettner
  • Gerhard Heilig
  • François Pelletier

Abstract

This study reviews the highly diverse regional and country patterns of HIV epidemics and discusses possible causes of the geographic variation in epidemic sizes. Past trends and projections of the epidemics are presented and the peak years of epidemics are estimated. The potential future impact of new prevention technologies is briefly assessed. A final section summarizes the future impact of the epidemic on key demographic variables. The main finding of this analysis is that the HIV epidemic reached a major turning point over the past decade. The peak years of HIV incidence rates are past for all regions, and the peaks of prevalence rates are mostly in the past except in Eastern Europe, where they are expected to peak in 2008. But owing in part to the life‐prolonging effect of antiretroviral therapy and to sustained population growth, the absolute number of infected individuals is expected to keep growing slowly in sub‐Saharan Africa and to remain near current levels worldwide, thus posing a continuing challenge to public health programs. No country is expected to see a decline in its population size between 2005 and 2050 that is attributable to high mortality related to AIDS.

Suggested Citation

  • John Bongaarts & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig & François Pelletier, 2008. "Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(2), pages 199-224, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:34:y:2008:i:2:p:199-224
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00217.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Iorio & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2011. "Education, HIV Status, and Risky Sexual Behavior: How Much Does the Stage of the HIV Epidemic Matter?," Working Papers 624, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Eva Deuchert, 2011. "The Virgin HIV Puzzle: Can Misreporting Account for the High Proportion of HIV Cases in Self-reported Virgins?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(1), pages 60-89, January.
    3. Nancy Luke & Shelley Clark & Eliya Zulu, 2011. "The Relationship History Calendar: Improving the Scope and Quality of Data on Youth Sexual Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 1151-1176, August.
    4. Michael Richards, 2012. "Using the economics of certification to improve the safety and quality of male circumcision in developing countries," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 77-85, March.
    5. Samuel J. Clark & Jason Thomas & Le Bao, 2012. "Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(26), pages 743-774.
    6. Ishida, Kanako & Arnold, Michael & Stupp, Paul & Kizito, Paul & Ichwara, Jared, 2012. "Exploring the connections between HIV serostatus and individual, household, and community socioeconomic resources: Evidence from two population-based surveys in Kenya," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 185-195.

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