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Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe: The Relative Importance of Tempo Effects and Generational Length

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  • Joshua Goldstein
  • Wolfgang Lutz
  • Sergei Scherbov

Abstract

It has recently been suggested that an end to further increases in the mean age of child‐bearing in Europe (ending the negative tempo effect on fertility) would have a substantial effect on population dynamics in terms of slowing population aging and decline and weakening the negative momentum affecting population size over the coming decades. On the other hand, stable population theory suggests that under sub‐replacement fertility conditions, a longer mean length of generations implies slower shrinking, and thus a relatively larger population in the very long run. This note compares the relative importance of the two effects analytically and with data for the 15‐country European Union. It also considers whether an increase in the mean age of childbearing will decrease the quantum of fertility. This question is highly relevant in the context of the effects of possible policies aiming to influence the tempo of fertility rather than the quantum directly. The results show that for the coming 200 years the effect of tempo changes clearly dominates, with the effect of a shorter mean length of generation only becoming visible thereafter. Even small tempo‐quantum interactions can overwhelm the generation‐length effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Goldstein & Wolfgang Lutz & Sergei Scherbov, 2003. "Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe: The Relative Importance of Tempo Effects and Generational Length," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 29(4), pages 699-707, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:29:y:2003:i:4:p:699-707
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00699.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Taryn Ann Galloway & Rannveig Kaldager Hart, 2015. "Effects of income and the cost of children on fertility. Quasi-experimental evidence from Norway," Discussion Papers 828, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Tomas Sobotka & Maria Winkler-Dworak & Maria Rita Testa & Wolfgang Lutz & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt & Richard Gisser, 2005. "Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria," VID Working Papers 0501, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    3. Chaloupka, Christine & Kölbl, Robert & Loibl, Wolfgang & Molitor, Romain & Nentwich, Michael & Peer, Stefanie & Risser, Ralf & Sammer, Gerd & Schützhofer, Bettina & Seibt, Claus, 2015. "Nachhaltige Mobilität aus sozioökonomischer Perspektive – Diskussionspapier der Arbeitsgruppe "Sozioökonomische Aspekte" der ÖAW-Kommission "Nachhaltige Mobilität" (ITA-manu," ITA manu:scripts 15_02, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    4. Marc Luy, 2006. "Mortality tempo-adjustment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(21), pages 561-590.

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