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The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi‐State Population Projections by Educational Attainment

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  • Wolfgang Lurz
  • Anne Goujon

Abstract

This research note presents the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi‐state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative scenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes constant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions reach Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momentum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educational composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because education is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational composition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enrollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated people of working age than Europe and Northern America together.

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  • Wolfgang Lurz & Anne Goujon, 2001. "The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi‐State Population Projections by Educational Attainment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 323-339, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:2:p:323-339
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00323.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1993. "A new database on human capital stock : sources, methodology and results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1124, The World Bank.
    2. Jejeebhoy, Shireen J., 1995. "Women's Education, Autonomy, and Reproductive Behaviour: Experience from Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290339.
    3. Romer, Paul M., 1990. "Human capital and growth: Theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 251-286, January.
    4. Kyriacou, George A., 1991. "Level and Growth Effects of Human Capital: A Cross-Country Study of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working Papers 91-26, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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    2. Andrea Kunnert, 2017. "Bildungsstruktur der österreichischen Bevölkerung und Haushalte bis 2040," WIFO Working Papers 538, WIFO.
    3. Riikka Shemeikka & Veijo Notkola & Harri Siiskonen, 2005. "Fertility decline in North-Central Namibia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(4), pages 83-116.
    4. Yuko Nozaki, 2017. "The effects of higher education on childrearing fertility behavior in Japan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(5), pages 653-669, May.
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    6. Istvan Majer & Ralph Stevens & Wilma Nusselder & Johan Mackenbach & Pieter Baal, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 673-697, April.

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