IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/pacecr/v27y2022i4p400-422.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International currency markets and the COVID‐19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Hsuan Fu
  • Jui‐Chung Yang

Abstract

We find that quantifying COVID‐19 pandemic shocks is critical to understanding international currency market returns. Scaled by population, shocks from between‐country differences in the number of weekly COVID‐19 deaths are informative in predicting exchange rate returns. Following Alfaro et al. (2020), we estimate the expected number of COVID‐19 deaths based on an exponential model and use it to construct two pandemic shocks that measure the unanticipated number of deaths on a weekly basis and the time‐varying correction of forecast provided new information from the previous week. We document negative impacts of COVID‐19 propagation on currency returns. In addition, we find that the government response, in particular fiscal and monetary stimulus packages, can help mitigate negative effects of COVID‐19 on currency returns. Our findings are robust to country‐specific pandemic measures, window sizes of the exponential model, and the choice of forecast model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsuan Fu & Jui‐Chung Yang, 2022. "International currency markets and the COVID‐19 pandemic," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 400-422, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:27:y:2022:i:4:p:400-422
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0106.12409
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12409
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1468-0106.12409?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Hang & Yu, Mei & Li, Jiahui & Qin, Qilin, 2021. "Rare disasters, exchange rates, and macroeconomic policy: Evidence from COVID-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Croce, Mariano & Farroni, Paolo & Wolfskeil, Isabella, 2020. "When the Markets Get COVID: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers 14674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2013. "International Asset Pricing with Recursive Preferences," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2651-2686, December.
    4. Matteo Maggiori, 2017. "Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3038-3071, October.
    5. Wenxin Du & Alexander Tepper & Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 915-957, June.
    6. Ismail O. Fasanya & Oluwatomisin Oyewole & Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Jones Odei-Mensah, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers and connectedness between COVID-19 pandemic and global foreign exchange markets," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 2059-2084, January.
    7. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    8. Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 375-418, February.
    9. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    10. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Adrien Desroziers, 2020. "The stock market is not the economy? Insights from the Covid-19 crisis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03252106, HAL.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    2. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
    3. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Peichu Xie, 2020. "The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets," IMF Working Papers 2020/101, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fang, Xiang & Liu, Yang, 2021. "Volatility, intermediaries, and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 217-233.
    6. Mirela Sandulescu & Fabio Trojani & Andrea Vedolin, 2021. "Model‐Free International Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 935-976, April.
    7. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    9. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Czech, Robert & Eguren Martin, Fernando, 2021. "Dash for Dollars," CEPR Discussion Papers 16415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Rosen Valchev, 2020. "Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 124-166, April.
    12. David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
    13. Marcus Hagedorn, 2021. "An Equilibrium Theory of Nominal Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 9290, CESifo.
    14. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Institutional investors, the dollar, and U.S. credit conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 198-220.
    15. Sherif. M. Hassan & John M. Riveros Gavilanes, 2021. "First to React Is the Last to Forgive: Evidence from the Stock Market Impact of COVID 19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, January.
    16. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo, 2021. "The international spread of COVID-19 stock market collapses," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    17. Han, Bo, 2022. "Currency denomination and borrowing cost: Evidence from global bonds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    18. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
    20. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:27:y:2022:i:4:p:400-422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1361-374X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.