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The determinants of volatility on the American crude oil futures market

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  • Delphine Lautier
  • Fabrice Riva

Abstract

This article focuses on the volatility of crude oil futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It aims at examining whether this market creates excess volatility, which would not be observed in the absence of such a market. In order to reach this objective, price fluctuations are separated into two components: an information component that reflects a rational assessment of the information arrival, and an error component that represents the noise introduced by the trading process. We show that a significant part of the volatility recorded during exchange trading hours is caused by mispricing errors. In particular, this phenomenon affects the nearest futures contract. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Delphine Lautier & Fabrice Riva, 2008. "The determinants of volatility on the American crude oil futures market," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 32(2), pages 105-122, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:2:p:105-122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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