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Measuring Conditional Persistence in Nonlinear Time Series

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  • George Kapetanios

Abstract

The persistence properties of economic time series have been a primary object of investigation in a variety of guises since the early days of econometrics. Recently, work on nonlinear modelling for time series has introduced the idea that persistence of a shock at a point in time may vary depending on the state of the process at that point in time. This article suggests investigating the persistence of processes conditioning on their history as a tool that may aid parametric nonlinear modelling. In particular, we suggest that examining the nonparametrically estimated derivatives of the conditional expectation of a variable with respect to its lag(s) may be a useful indicator of the variation in persistence with respect to its past history. We discuss in detail the implementation of the measure and present a Monte Carlo investigation. We further apply the persistence analysis to real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • George Kapetanios, 2007. "Measuring Conditional Persistence in Nonlinear Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(3), pages 363-386, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:69:y:2007:i:3:p:363-386
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2006.00437.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Villani, Mattias & Kohn, Robert & Giordani, Paolo, 2009. "Regression density estimation using smooth adaptive Gaussian mixtures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 155-173, December.
    2. Ilias Chronopoulos & Aristeidis Raftapostolos & George Kapetanios, 2024. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk Using Deep Neural Network Quantile Regression," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 636-669.
    3. Chan, Wai-Sum, 2022. "On temporal aggregation of some nonlinear time-series models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 38-49.
    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2010. "Commodity futures and market efficiency: A fractional integrated approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 276-282, December.

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