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Probability And Uncertainty: The Legacy Of Georgescu‐Roegen

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  • Fulvio Fontini

Abstract

In this paper we consider Georgescu‐Roegen's approach to uncertainty, showing that his characterization of expectations cannot be reduced to any probabilistic decision‐making model. Drawing upon Georgescu‐Roegen's lesson a lexicographical utility function is proposed and analysed in the mark of his own peculiar scientific methodology. It is demonstrated that such a formulation can be useful in solving the usual failure of the expected utility model, such as the Ellsberg paradoxes. The epistemic limits of our re‐construction are considered.

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  • Fulvio Fontini, 2009. "Probability And Uncertainty: The Legacy Of Georgescu‐Roegen," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 324-342, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:60:y:2009:i:2:p:324-342
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2008.00337.x
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    1. Dow James & Werlang Sergio Ribeiro Da Costa, 1994. "Nash Equilibrium under Knightian Uncertainty: Breaking Down Backward Induction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 305-324, December.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1980. "A Rehabilitation of the Principle of Insufficient Reason," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(3), pages 493-506.
    3. Daniel Ellsberg, 1961. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 643-669.
    4. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 1999. "E-Capacities and the Ellsberg Paradox," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 107-138, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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