IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/metroe/v57y2006i4p536-563.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demography In Macroeconomic Models: When Labour Supply Matters For Economic Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Piero Manfredi
  • Luciano Fanti

Abstract

The issue of the onset of Malthusian cycles is investigated by means of a demo‐economic model incorporating the age structure of the population. It is shown that the delayed recruitment into the labour force is a major source of demo‐economic instability, potentially leading to sustained oscillations. We also compare different modelling strategies for age structure, by showing that the results of our general model are borne out by those provided by a simpler model, based on a representation of age structure via time delays, which allows a deeper mathematical analysis. This suggests that simplified delay models may be of great help in understanding the qualitative properties of complex age structure models.

Suggested Citation

  • Piero Manfredi & Luciano Fanti, 2006. "Demography In Macroeconomic Models: When Labour Supply Matters For Economic Cycles," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 536-563, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:57:y:2006:i:4:p:536-563
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2006.00255.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2006.00255.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-999X.2006.00255.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jones Charles I., 2001. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, August.
    2. Hans‐Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680, December.
    3. Feichtinger, Gustav & Dockner, Englebert J, 1990. "Capital Accumulation, Endogenous Population Growth, and Easterlin Cycles," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(2), pages 73-87, August.
    4. Harvie, David, 2000. "Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 24(3), pages 349-376, May.
    5. Ronald Lee, 1974. "The formal dynamics of controlled populations and the echo, the boom and the bust," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(4), pages 563-585, November.
    6. Charles I. Jones, "undated". "Population and Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth," Working Papers 98014, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    7. James Frauenthal & Kenneth Swick, 1983. "Limit cycle oscillations of the human population," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 20(3), pages 285-298, August.
    8. Feichtinger, Gustav & Sorger, Gerhard, 1989. "Self-Generated Fertility Waves in a Non-linear Continuous Overlapping Generations Model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(4), pages 267-280.
    9. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Foundations, Synthesis, Perspectives," Working Paper Series 85, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Blundell, Richard & Ham, John & Meghir, Costas, 1998. "Unemployment, discouraged workers and female labour supply," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 103-131, June.
    11. Chu, C Y Cyrus & Lu, Huei-Chung, 1995. "Toward a General Analysis of Endogenous Easterlin Cycles," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 35-57, February.
    12. Day, Richard H & Kim, Kyoo-Hong & Macunovich, Diane, 1989. "Complex Demoeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 139-159.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Srdelic, Leonarda & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2022. "Demographic transition and economic growth in 6-EU member states," MPRA Paper 112188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aso, Hiroki, 2020. "Demographic transition and Economic development : the role of child costs," MPRA Paper 99966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fanti, Luciano & Spataro, Luca, 2013. "On the relationship between fertility and public national debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 843-849.
    4. Fanti, Luciano & Manfredi, Piero, 2009. "Neoclassical production theory and growth with unemployment: The stability issue revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 126-135, June.
    5. Juan Gabriel Brida & Juan S. Pereyra & Wiston Adrián Risso, 2011. "Learning strategies in modelling economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 546-559.
    6. Tamotsu Nakamura, 2018. "Solow meets Stone–Geary: Technological progress and the demographic transition," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 768-790, November.
    7. Marwil J Dávila-Fernández & Jose Luis Oreiro, 2023. "Competitiveness and dynamic cumulative causation in an export-led growing economy," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 522-550.
    8. Manfredi, Piero & Fanti, Luciano, 2006. "The complex effects of demographic heterogeneity on the interaction between the economy and population," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 148-173, June.
    9. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil & Oreiro, José, 2021. "A song of ice and fire: Competitiveness in an export-led growing economy," MPRA Paper 109821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Roa, María José & Saura, Dulce & Vázquez, Francisco J., 2011. "Economic growth, labor market and demographic patterns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 81-91, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manfredi, Piero & Fanti, Luciano, 2006. "The complex effects of demographic heterogeneity on the interaction between the economy and population," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 148-173, June.
    2. Roa, María José & Saura, Dulce & Vázquez, Francisco J., 2011. "Economic growth, labor market and demographic patterns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 81-91, February.
    3. Luciano Fanti & Mimmo Iannelli & Piero Manfredi, 2010. "Endogenous Age Structure in Descriptive Macroeconomic Growth Models: A General Framework and Some Steady State Analysis," Chapters, in: Neri Salvadori (ed.), Institutional and Social Dynamics of Growth and Distribution, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Larry Jones & Alice Schoonbrodt, 2016. "Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 157-178, October.
    5. Robert Schoen & Young Kim, 1997. "Exploring cyclic net reproduction," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 277-290.
    6. Masters, William A & McMillan, Margaret S, 2001. "Climate and Scale in Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 167-186, September.
    7. Growiec, Jakub, 2010. "Knife-edge conditions in the modeling of long-run growth regularities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1143-1154, December.
    8. Kenneth Wachter & Ronald Lee, 1989. "U.S. births and limit cycle Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(1), pages 99-115, February.
    9. Luciano Fanati & Piero Manfredi, 2003. "Population, Unemployment and Economic Growth Cycles: A Further Explanatory Perspective," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 179-207, May.
    10. Jacob L. Weisdorf, 2006. "From domestic manufacture to Industrial Revolution: long-run growth and agricultural development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 264-287, April.
    11. Ronald Lee, 1987. "Population dynamics of humans and other animals," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(4), pages 443-465, November.
    12. Herbert Dawid & Engelbert Dockner & Richard Hartl & Josef Haunschmied & Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger & Mikulas Luptacik & Alexander Mehlmann & Alexia Prskawetz & Marion Rauner & Gerhard Sorger & Gernot T, 2010. "Gustav Feichtinger celebrates his 70th birthday," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 437-451, December.
    13. Strulik, Holger, 1999. "Demographic Transition, Stagnation, and Demoeconomic Cycles in a Model for the Less Developed Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 397-413, April.
    14. Erich Gundlach, 2003. "Growth Effects of EU Membership: The Case of East Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 237-270, September.
    15. Matthias Doepke, "undated". "Growth Takeoffs," UCLA Economics Online Papers 409, UCLA Department of Economics.
    16. Henrekson, Magnus & Johansson, Dan, 2010. "Firm Growth, Institutions and Structural Transformation," Ratio Working Papers 150, The Ratio Institute.
    17. Sunnee Billingsley, 2010. "The Post-Communist Fertility Puzzle," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(2), pages 193-231, April.
    18. Gonçola Monteiro & Alvaro Pereira, 2006. "From Growth Spurts to Sustained Growth," Discussion Papers 06/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. Vegard Skirbekk & Hans-Peter Kohler & Alexia Prskawetz, 2004. "Birth month, school graduation, and the timing of births and marriages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(3), pages 547-568, August.
    20. Nils‐Petter Lagerlöf & Thomas Tangerås, 2008. "From rent seeking to human capital: a model where resource shocks cause transitions from stagnation to growth," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 760-780, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:57:y:2006:i:4:p:536-563. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0026-1386 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.