IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/manchs/v82y2014i5p620-630.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cyclical Activity and Gestation Lags in Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Joanne S. Ercolani

Abstract

type="main"> This paper uses a macroeconomic model of investment behaviour to identify cyclical activity in UK investment. Various cycles are detected and their lengths are estimated. As a new contribution to the business cycle literature, we estimate the gestation lags inherent in investment projects (arising from capital adjustment, buildings construction etc.) that are considered central to the creation of fluctuations in economic activity. We find multiple and statistically significant cycles in our investment series, including a 3.1-year Kitchin cycle, a 9.6-year Juglar cycle and a 22.2-year Kuznets swing, driven by gestation lags of 1.1 years, 2.4 years and 12 years respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Joanne S. Ercolani, 2014. "Cyclical Activity and Gestation Lags in Investment," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(5), pages 620-630, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:82:y:2014:i:5:p:620-630
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/manc.12040
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asea, Patrick K. & Zak, Paul J., 1999. "Time-to-build and cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1155-1175, August.
    2. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Paul, Christopher, 1997. "Differential-difference equations in economics: On the numerical solution of vintage capital growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 347-362.
    3. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Puch, Luis A. & del Rio, Fernando, 2005. "Vintage capital and the dynamics of the AK model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 39-72, January.
    4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    5. Chambers, Marcus J. & McGarry, Joanne S., 2002. "Modeling Cyclical Behavior With Differential-Difference Equations In An Unobserved Components Framework," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 387-419, April.
    6. Benhabib, Jess, 2004. "Interest Rate Policy in Continuous Time with Discrete Delays," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 1-15, February.
    7. De Cesare, Luigi & Sportelli, Mario, 2005. "A dynamic IS-LM model with delayed taxation revenues," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 233-244.
    8. Ercolani, Joanne S. & Chambers, Marcus J., 2006. "Estimation Of Differential-Difference Equation Systems With Unknown Lag Parameters," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 483-498, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ulrich Brandt-Pollmann & Ralph Winkler & Sebastian Sager & Ulf Moslener & Johannes Schlöder, 2008. "Numerical Solution of Optimal Control Problems with Constant Control Delays," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 181-206, March.
    2. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Hupkes, Hermen Jan, 2014. "Multiple solutions in systems of functional differential equations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 50-56.
    3. Mauro Bambi & Cristina Girolami & Salvatore Federico & Fausto Gozzi, 2017. "Generically distributed investments on flexible projects and endogenous growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 521-558, February.
    4. Bambi, Mauro & Gori, Franco, 2014. "Unifying Time-To-Build Theory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(8), pages 1713-1725, December.
    5. Fabrice Collard & Omar Licandro & Luis A. Puch, 2008. "The short-run Dynamics of Optimal Growth Model with Delays," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 90, pages 127-143.
    6. Mauro Bambi, 2006. "Endogenous growth and time to build: the AK case," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 77, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Ralph Winkler, 2008. "Optimal compliance with emission constraints: dynamic characteristics and the choice of technique," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(4), pages 411-432, April.
    8. Joanne S. McGarry & Marcus J. Chambers, 2004. "Party formation and coalitional bargaining in a model of proportional representation," Discussion Papers 04-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    9. Fabbri Giorgio & Federico Salvatore, 2014. "On the Infinite-Dimensional Representation of Stochastic Controlled Systems with Delayed Control in the Diffusion Term," Mathematical Economics Letters, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3-4), pages 33-43, November.
    10. Frédéric Zumer & Jacques Le Cacheux & Marc Flandreau, 1998. "Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European Gold Standard, 1880-1913," Sciences Po publications n°98-01, Sciences Po.
    11. Hippolyte d'Albis & Jean-Pierre Drugeon, 2020. "On Investment and Cycles in Explicitely Solved Vintage Capital Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02570648, HAL.
    12. Omar Licandro & Luis A. Puch, 2006. "Is Discrete Time a Good Representation of Continuous Time?," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/28, European University Institute.
    13. Bambi, Mauro & Gozzi, Fausto & Licandro, Omar, 2014. "Endogenous growth and wave-like business fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 68-111.
    14. Lin, Hwan C. & Shampine, L.F., 2014. "Finite-length Patents and Functional Differential Equations in a Non-scale R&D-based Growth Model," MPRA Paper 61603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hwan C. Lin & L. F. Shampine, 2018. "R&D-based Calibrated Growth Models with Finite-Length Patents: A Novel Relaxation Algorithm for Solving an Autonomous FDE System of Mixed Type," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 123-158, January.
    16. Joanne S. Ercolani, 2007. "Cyclical Trends in Continuous Time Models," Discussion Papers 07-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    17. Fabbri, Giorgio, 2006. "Viscosity solutions approach to economic models governed by DDEs," MPRA Paper 2826, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. William Lefebvre & Enzo Miller, 2021. "Linear-quadratic stochastic delayed control and deep learning resolution," Working Papers hal-03145949, HAL.
    19. Kitagawa, Akiomi & Shibata, Akihisa, 2001. "Long gestation in an overlapping generations economy: endogenous cycles and indeterminacy of equilibria," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 99-127, February.
    20. William Lefebvre & Enzo Miller, 2021. "Linear-quadratic stochastic delayed control and deep learning resolution," Papers 2102.09851, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:82:y:2014:i:5:p:620-630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.