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Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade–off Between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?

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  • Philip Arestis
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Andrea Cipollini

Abstract

We utilize a stochastic volatility model to analyse the possible effects of inflation targeting on the trade–off between output gap variability and inflation variability. We find that the adoption of inflation targets (in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the UK, Sweden and Finland) might result in a more favourable monetary policy trade–off (except in Australia and Finland). This conclusion is reached by comparing, first, the economic performance of targeting countries in the 1980s and the 1990s; and second, the economic performance in the 1990s of targeting and non–targeting countries (the USA, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, France and the Netherlands). We focus on two possible explanations for the performance of the inflation–targeting regime: the relatively high degree of monetary policy transparency, and the presence of a flexible institutional framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Arestis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade–off Between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 528-545, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:70:y:2002:i:4:p:528-545
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00299
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. P Arestis & A Mihailov, 2009. "Flexible Rules cum Constrained Discretion: A New Consensus in Monetary Policy," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(2), pages 27-54, September.
    2. Nathan Perry & Nathaniel Cline, 2013. "Wages, Exchange Rates, and the Great Inflation Moderation: A Post-Keynesian View," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_759, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Is There a Trade‐Off Between Inflation Variability and Output‐Gap Variability in the EMU Countries?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(5), pages 691-706, November.
    4. Kesavarajah Mayandy & Paul Middleditch, 2022. "Monetary policy and inflation–output variability in Sri Lanka: Lessons for developing economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 259-279, February.
    5. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "Short- and Long-Run Differences in the Treatment Effects of Inflation Targeting on Developed and Developing Countries," Working papers 2009-14, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2010.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Empirical Evidence for the European Union," IMF Working Papers 2005/089, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2012. "Monetary Policy Facing Fiscal Indiscipline under Generalized Timing of Actions," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 168(3), pages 393-431, September.
    8. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Wang, Xiuhua, 2019. "Inflation targeting and output-inflation tradeoffs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 102-120.
    9. Giuseppe Fontana & Alfonso Palacio‐Vera, 2007. "Are Long‐Run Price Stability And Short‐Run Output Stabilization All That Monetary Policy Can Aim For?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 269-298, May.
    10. Nathan Perry & Nathaniel Cline, 2016. "What caused the great inflation moderation in the US? A post-Keynesian view," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 475-502, October.
    11. Berument, Hakan & Yuksel, Ebru, 2007. "Effects of adopting inflation targeting regimes on inflation variability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(1), pages 265-273.
    12. Libich Jan, 2011. "Inflation Nutters? Modelling the Flexibility of Inflation Targeting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-36, June.
    13. Stephen M. Miller & WenShwo Fang & Ozkan Eren, 2012. "Inflation Targeting: Does It Improve Economic Performance?," Working Papers 1207, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    14. Sanjeev Parmanand, 2022. "The impact of Philippine monetary policy on domestic prices and output: evaluating the country’s transmission channels," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 46-76, June.
    15. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Evaluation: Short-run Costs and Long-run Irrelevance," Working Papers 0920, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    16. Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2015. "The effect of the market-based monetary policy transparency index on inflation and output variability," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 105-124, January.
    17. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller & Alexandros Panethimitakis & Athanassios Vamvakidis, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from Aggregate European Data," Working papers 2005-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

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