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Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long‐run Growth

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  • Richard Kneller
  • Garry Young

Abstract

Using data for 24 OECD economies from 1961 to 1997 we investigate whether the empirical relationship between business cycle volatility and long‐run growth is positive, as Blackburn (Economic Journal, Vol. 109, No. 1 (1999), pp. 67–77) suggests, or negative, the view of the UK and other governments. The existing empirical literature is ambiguous on this issue. Here we account for the disparate results and find a significant negative relationship. This relationship is found to depend crucially on the time dimension of the data. We also find that oil price volatility and inflation uncertainty, as indicators of world and general shocks, are robustly correlated with growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Kneller & Garry Young, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long‐run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-552, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:69:y:2001:i:5:p:534-552
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00268
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeannine Bailliu & Robert Lafrance & Jean‐François Perrault, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 381-414, November.
    2. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Christos Savva, 2021. "Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 345-364, July.
    3. Chen, Min & Zhu, Zhaobo & Han, Peiwen & Chen, Bo & Liu, Jia, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and analyst behaviours: Evidence from the United Kingdom," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Revisiting the link between output growth and volatility: panel GARCH analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 743-771, August.
    5. Bermúdez, Cecilia & Dabús, Carlos & Aromí, Daniel, 2022. "Uncertainty and economic growth: evidence from Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. Wen‐Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
    7. Mallick Debdulal, 2019. "The growth-volatility relationship redux: what does volatility decomposition tell?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Srikanta Kundu & Nityananda Sarkar, 2018. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth: evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 390-413, September.
    9. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
    10. Cecilia Bermúdez & Carlos D. Dabús & Germán H. González, 2015. "Reexamining the link between instability and growth in Latin America: A dynamic panel data estimation using k-median clusters," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, May.
    11. Ragchaasuren, Galindev, 2005. "The Relationship between Growth and Volatility under Alternative Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 9980, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    12. Min Chen & Zhaobo Zhu & Peiwen Han & Bo Chen & Jia Liu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and analyst behaviours: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Post-Print hal-03628930, HAL.

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