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The Estimation And Prediction Of Subset Bilinear Time Series Models With Applications

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  • M. M. Gabr
  • T. Subba Rao

Abstract

. In this paper we define subset bilinear time series models, and then describe an algorithm for the estimation of these models. It is also pointed out that for this class of non‐linear time series models, it is possible to obtain optimal several step predictors. The estimation technique of these models is illustrated with respect to three time series, and the optimal several steps ahead forecasts of these time series models are calculated. A comparison of these forecasts is made with the forecasts obtained by the best linear autoregressive and threshold autoregressive models. The residuals obtained from the models are tested for independence and Gaussianity using higher order moments.

Suggested Citation

  • M. M. Gabr & T. Subba Rao, 1981. "The Estimation And Prediction Of Subset Bilinear Time Series Models With Applications," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 155-171, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:2:y:1981:i:3:p:155-171
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1981.tb00319.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Mak Kaboudan, 2006. "Computational Forecasting of Wavelet-converted Monthly Sunspot Numbers," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(9), pages 925-941.
    2. Kaboudan, M. A., 2001. "Genetically evolved models and normality of their fitted residuals," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1719-1749, November.
    3. Abdelouahab Bibi & Abdelhakim Aknouche, 2010. "Yule–Walker type estimators in periodic bilinear models: strong consistency and asymptotic normality," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30, March.
    4. Monti, Anna Clara, 1996. "A new preliminary estimator for MA(1) models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. M. A. Kaboudan, 2000. "Evaluation Of Forecasts Produced By Genetically Evolved Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 331, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Francesco Battaglia & Lia Orfei, 2005. "Outlier Detection And Estimation In NonLinear Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 107-121, January.
    7. Cathy W. S. Chen & Tsai-Hung Cherng & Berlin Wu, 2001. "On the Selection of Subset Bilinear Time Series Models: a Genetic Algorithm Approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 505-517, December.

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