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The Effect Of Aggregation On Prediction In Autoregressive Integrated Moving‐Average Models

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  • L. K. Hotta
  • J. Cardosc Neto

Abstract

. Let xt be a time series generated by an autoregressive integrated moving‐average process ARIMA(p, d, q). The non‐overlapping aggregate series also follows an ARIMA process. Thus, the prediction of the aggregated observations could be done by either the disaggregate model or the aggregate model. We derive the efficiency of the predictors for two important disaggregate models, ARIMA(0, 1, 1) and ARIMA(0, 2, 2), when the models are assumed known. When the models are not known we estimate the efficiency through simulation with the models being selected using Akaike's information criterion.

Suggested Citation

  • L. K. Hotta & J. Cardosc Neto, 1993. "The Effect Of Aggregation On Prediction In Autoregressive Integrated Moving‐Average Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 261-269, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:14:y:1993:i:3:p:261-269
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1993.tb00143.x
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    Cited by:

    1. SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2005. "Temporal aggregation of univariate linear time series models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005059, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Ferrara, Laurent & Marsilli, Clément & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2014. "Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 44-50.
    3. Luiz Hotta & Pedro Pereira & Rissa Ota, 2004. "Effect of outliers on forecasting temporally aggregated flow variables," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 13(2), pages 371-402, December.
    4. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2017. "Forecasting with temporal hierarchies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 60-74.
    5. Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2003. "The aliasing effect, the Fejer Kernel and temporally aggregated long memory processes," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 470, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. George Athanasopoulos & Puwasala Gamakumara & Anastasios Panagiotelis & Rob J Hyndman & Mohamed Affan, 2019. "Hierarchical Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024. "Forecast reconciliation: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.
    8. Jože Martin Rožanec & Blaž Fortuna & Dunja Mladenić, 2022. "Reframing Demand Forecasting: A Two-Fold Approach for Lumpy and Intermittent Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-21, July.

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