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Forecasting Exponential Autoregressive Models Of Order 1

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  • M. S. Al‐Qassam
  • J. A. Lane

Abstract

. Exact forecasting of the non‐linear EXPAR(1) model for several steps ahead involves a sequence of numerical integrations, thus motivating the search for reasonable approximations. A method based on the assumption of approximately normal forecast errors is shown to give forecasts which perform well in both qualitative and numerical comparisons with two alternative approximations based on naive extrapolation and linearization of the autoregression function.

Suggested Citation

  • M. S. Al‐Qassam & J. A. Lane, 1989. "Forecasting Exponential Autoregressive Models Of Order 1," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 95-113, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:10:y:1989:i:2:p:95-113
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1989.tb00018.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December.
    2. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2018. "Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1717-1755, December.
    3. Merzougui M, 2020. "Wald Tests in the Restricted Periodic EXPAR (1) Model," Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 10(1), pages 18-21, July.
    4. Dueker, Michael J. & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2007. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: Estimation, testing and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 517-547, December.
    5. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-141, March-Apr.
    6. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, October.
    7. Ramazan Gencay & Ege Yazgan, 2017. "When Are Wavelets Useful Forecasters?," Working Papers 1704, The Center for Financial Studies (CEFIS), Istanbul Bilgi University.
    8. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "Is there an optimal forecast combination? A stochastic dominance approach applied to the forecast combination puzzle," Working Papers 1206, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    10. Joseph Ngatchou-Wandji & Marwa Ltaifa & Didier Alain Njamen Njomen & Jia Shen, 2022. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Density Function of the Distribution of the Noise in CHARN Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, February.
    11. Amendola, Alessandra & Christian, Francq, 2009. "Concepts and tools for nonlinear time series modelling," MPRA Paper 15140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. De Gooijer, Jan G. & De Bruin, Paul T., 1998. "On forecasting SETAR processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 7-14, January.
    13. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    14. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2011. "Modeling and Forecasting Interval Time Series with Threshold Models: An Application to S&P500 Index Returns," Working Papers w201128, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    15. Harun Özkan & M. Yazgan, 2015. "Is forecasting inflation easier under inflation targeting?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 609-626, March.

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