IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jpbect/v23y2021i6p1130-1143.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rational conjectures and evolutionary beliefs in public goods games

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew McGinty

Abstract

This paper applies conjectural variations (CVs) to a model of public good provision and shows that CVs are superior to Nash beliefs. In addition to imposing consistency, as Bresnahan, I show that consistent conjectures (CCs) are obtained from individual payoff maximization. CCs emerge as the unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (NE) in a two‐stage game in which beliefs are chosen in Stage 1 and quantities in Stage 2. There is an individual payoff advantage to non‐Nash behavior, generating a Prisoner's Dilemma in conjectures in addition to the usual free‐rider problem associated with public goods. The correct and payoff maximizing conjecture is the unique equilibrium in an evolutionary framework against a player with Nash conjectures. The consistent conjecture equilibrium is the unique evolutionary equilibrium when both players conjectures evolve. Hence, the NE prediction is too optimistic when players have rational conjectures.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew McGinty, 2021. "Rational conjectures and evolutionary beliefs in public goods games," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(6), pages 1130-1143, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:23:y:2021:i:6:p:1130-1143
    DOI: 10.1111/jpet.12503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jpet.12503
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jpet.12503?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paulo Brito & Bipasa Datta & Huw Dixon, 2011. "The evolution of mixed conjectures in the rent-extraction game," Discussion Papers 11/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1998. "Learning in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 631-639, May.
    3. Müller, W. & Normann, H.T., 2003. "Conjectural Variations and Evolutionary Stability : A New Rationale for Consistency," Other publications TiSEM af576ec2-1637-4390-8b59-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Bordignon, Massimo, 1994. "A further look at consistent conjectures and private provision of public goods," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 109-121, June.
    5. Gelves, Alejandro & McGinty, Matthew, 2016. "International environmental agreements with consistent conjectures," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 67-84.
    6. Dixon, Huw D. & Somma, Ernesto, 2003. "The evolution of consistent conjectures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 523-536, August.
    7. Cornes, Richard & Sandler, Todd, 1985. "On the consistency of conjectures with public goods," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 125-129, June.
    8. Joshua Elliott & Ian Foster & Samuel Kortum & Todd Munson & Fernando Pérez Cervantes & David Weisbach, 2010. "Trade and Carbon Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 465-469, May.
    9. Morton I. Kamien & Nancy L. Schwartz, 1983. "Conjectural Variations," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 191-211, May.
    10. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
    11. Andrew F. Daughety, 1985. "Reconsidering Cournot: The Cournot Equilibrium is Consistent," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(3), pages 368-379, Autumn.
    12. Robson, Arthur J, 1983. "Existence of Consistent Conjectures: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 454-456, June.
    13. Cabral, Luis M. B., 1995. "Conjectural variations as a reduced form," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 397-402, October.
    14. Wieland Müller & Hans-Theo Normann, 2005. "Conjectural Variations and Evolutionary Stability: A Rationale for Consistency," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 161(3), pages 491-502, September.
    15. Perloff,Jeffrey M. & Karp,Larry S. & Golan,Amos, 2007. "Estimating Market Power and Strategies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521011143, September.
    16. Lindh, Thomas, 1992. "The inconsistency of consistent conjectures : Coming back to Cournot," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 69-90, June.
    17. Fung, K C, 1989. "Tariffs, Quotas, and International Oligopoly," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 749-757, October.
    18. Friedman, Daniel, 1991. "Evolutionary Games in Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 637-666, May.
    19. Makowski, Louis, 1987. "Are 'Rational Conjectures' Rational?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 35-47, September.
    20. Bresnahan, Timothy F, 1981. "Duopoly Models with Consistent Conjectures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 934-945, December.
    21. Jun–ichi Itaya & Makoto Okamura, 2003. "Conjectural Variations and Voluntary Public Good Provision in a Repeated Game Setting," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 51-66, January.
    22. Barrett, Scott, 1994. "Self-Enforcing International Environmental Agreements," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 878-894, Supplemen.
    23. Friedman, Daniel & Ostrov, Daniel N., 2013. "Evolutionary dynamics over continuous action spaces for population games that arise from symmetric two-player games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 743-777.
    24. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1998. "The Theory of Learning in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061945, April.
    25. Wolfgang Buchholz & Weifeng Liu, 2020. "Global public goods and unilateral matching mechanisms," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(2), pages 338-354, April.
    26. Sugden, Robert, 1985. "Consistent conjectures and voluntary contributions to public goods: why the conventional theory does not work," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 117-124, June.
    27. Heywood, John S. & McGinty, Matthew, 2012. "Scale economies, consistent conjectures and teams," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 566-568.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gelves, Alejandro & McGinty, Matthew, 2016. "International environmental agreements with consistent conjectures," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 67-84.
    2. Holloway, Garth J., 1995. "Conjectural Variations With Fewer Apologies," Working Papers 225880, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. Paulo Brito & Bipasa Datta & Huw Dixon, 2011. "The evolution of mixed conjectures in the rent-extraction game," Discussion Papers 11/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Iskakov, A. & Iskakov, M., 2017. "In Search of a Generalized Concept of Rationality," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 181-189.
    5. Prof. Jean-Paul Chavas, 2010. "On Industry Structure and Firm Conduct in Long Run Equilibrium," Journal of Management and Strategy, Journal of Management and Strategy, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(1), pages 2-21, December.
    6. Ilkka Leppänen, 2018. "Evolutionarily stable conjectures and other regarding preferences in duopoly games," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 347-364, April.
    7. Leppänen, Ilkka, 2016. "Consistent conjectures and the evolutionary stability of other-regarding preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 53-55.
    8. Possajennikov, Alex, 2015. "Conjectural variations in aggregative games: An evolutionary perspective," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 55-61.
    9. Jean-Marie, Alain & Tidball, Mabel, 2006. "Adapting behaviors through a learning process," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 399-422, July.
    10. Wieland Müller & Hans-Theo Normann, 2005. "Conjectural Variations and Evolutionary Stability: A Rationale for Consistency," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 161(3), pages 491-502, September.
    11. Possajennikov, Alex, 2009. "The evolutionary stability of constant consistent conjectures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 21-29, October.
    12. V. A. Bulavsky & V. V. Kalashnikov, 2012. "Games with Linear Conjectures About System Parameters," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 152-170, January.
    13. Dixon, Huw D. & Somma, Ernesto, 2003. "The evolution of consistent conjectures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 523-536, August.
    14. Heywood, John S. & McGinty, Matthew, 2012. "Scale economies, consistent conjectures and teams," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 566-568.
    15. Friedman, James W. & Mezzetti, Claudio, 2002. "Bounded rationality, dynamic oligopoly, and conjectural variations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 287-306, November.
    16. Müller, W. & Normann, H.T., 2003. "Conjectural Variations and Evolutionary Stability : A New Rationale for Consistency," Discussion Paper 2003-44, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. N. Quérou & M. Tidball, 2014. "Consistent conjectures in a dynamic model of non-renewable resource management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 220(1), pages 159-180, September.
    18. Wolfgang Buchholz & Todd Sandler, 2017. "Successful Leadership in Global Public Good Provision: Incorporating Behavioural Approaches," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(3), pages 591-607, July.
    19. Jean Rabanal & Daniel Friedman, 2014. "Incomplete Information, Dynamic Stability and the Evolution of Preferences: Two Examples," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 448-467, December.
    20. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:23:y:2021:i:6:p:1130-1143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/apettea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.