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Condorcet Jury Theorem or Rational Ignorance

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  • MINORU KITAHARA
  • YOHEI SEKIGUCHI

Abstract

We analyze a symmetric model of an election in which voters are uncertain about which of two alternatives is desirable for them. Each voter must incur some cost to acquire information about the alternatives. We show that by focusing on unbiased voting strategies, general symmetric signal structures can be degenerated to a two‐signal model. In addition, we show that for any sequence of unbiased voting equilibria, if the second‐order derivative of the information cost function at no information is zero, then the probability of electing the desirable alternative converges to one, that is, the Condorcet Jury Theorem is valid. Otherwise, this probability converges to some value less than one; that is, the “rational ignorance” hypothesis is valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Minoru Kitahara & Yohei Sekiguchi, 2008. "Condorcet Jury Theorem or Rational Ignorance," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(2), pages 281-300, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:10:y:2008:i:2:p:281-300
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9779.2008.00362.x
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    1. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
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    1. Kitahara, Minoru & Sekiguchi, Yohei, 2008. "Majority rule or delegation? A normal noise case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 36-39, April.

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