Statistical inference on tree swallow migrations with random forests

Bird species’ migratory patterns have typically been studied through individual observations and historical records. In recent years, the eBird citizen science project, which solicits observations from thousands of bird watchers around the world, has opened the door for a data‐driven approach to understanding the large‐scale geographical movements. Here, we focus on the North American tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) occurrence patterns throughout the eastern USA. Migratory departure dates for this species are widely believed by both ornithologists and casual observers to vary substantially across years, but the reasons for this are largely unknown. In this work, we present evidence that maximum daily temperature is predictive of tree swallow occurrence. Because it is generally understood that species occurrence is a function of many complex, high order interactions between ecological covariates, we utilize the flexible modelling approach that is offered by random forests. Making use of recent asymptotic results, we provide formal hypothesis tests for predictive significance of various covariates and also develop and implement a permutation‐based approach for formally assessing interannual variations by treating the prediction surfaces that are generated by random forests as functional data. Each of these tests suggest that maximum daily temperature is important in predicting migration patterns.