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A framework for progressively improving small area population estimates

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  • Philip Rees
  • Paul Norman
  • Dominic Brown

Abstract

Summary. The paper presents a framework for small area population estimation that enables users to select a method that is fit for the purpose. The adjustments to input data that are needed before use are outlined, with emphasis on developing consistent time series of inputs. We show how geographical harmonization of small areas, which is crucial to comparisons over time, can be achieved. For two study regions, the East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber, the differences in output and consequences of adopting different methods are illustrated. The paper concludes with a discussion of how data, on stream since 1998, might be included in future small area estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Rees & Paul Norman & Dominic Brown, 2004. "A framework for progressively improving small area population estimates," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 5-36, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:167:y:2004:i:1:p:5-36
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00289.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Marois & Alain Bélanger, 2014. "Microsimulation Model Projecting Small Area Populations Using Contextual Variables: An Application to the Montreal Metropolitan Area, 2006-2031," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(1), pages 158-193.
    2. Jack Baker & David Swanson & Jeff Tayman, 2023. "Boosted Regression Trees for Small-Area Population Forecasting," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    4. Ahmad Hleihel, 2006. "Differences in Population Estimates Between an Administrative System and Census: The Case of Israel," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 63-82.

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