IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v159y1996i3p535-545.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Opinion Polls: The Uk General Election, 1992

Author

Listed:
  • T. M. F. Smith

Abstract

The public opinion polls conducted before the 1992 general election were a statistical disaster. The errors were far in excess of expected sampling variation and can only be explained by biases specific to the context of the 1992 election since previous election results had been forecast accurately. The replication in the polls in the months before the election provides a natural experiment from which the sampling variance of quota samples can be estimated. Using a components‐of‐variance model, company‐specific variances are estimated and are found to be consistent with those which would have been obtained from equivalent random sample designs.

Suggested Citation

  • T. M. F. Smith, 1996. "Public Opinion Polls: The Uk General Election, 1992," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 159(3), pages 535-545, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:159:y:1996:i:3:p:535-545
    DOI: 10.2307/2983330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2983330
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2307/2983330?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fumagalli, Laura & Sala, Emanuela, 2011. "The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: the case of the 2006 Italian general elections," ISER Working Paper Series 2011-29, Institute for Social and Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:159:y:1996:i:3:p:535-545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.