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Management Forecast Consistency

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  • GILLES HILARY
  • CHARLES HSU
  • RENCHENG WANG

Abstract

We posit that management forecasts, which are predictable transformations of realized earnings without random errors, are more informative than unbiased forecasts, which manifest small but unpredictable errors, even if biased forecasts are less accurate. Consistent with this intuition, we find that managers who make consistent forecasting errors have a greater ability to influence investor reactions and analyst revisions, even after controlling for the effect of accuracy. This effect is more economically significant and statistically robust than that of forecast accuracy. More sophisticated investors and experienced analysts are found to have a better understanding of the benefits of consistent management forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Hilary & Charles Hsu & Rencheng Wang, 2014. "Management Forecast Consistency," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 163-191, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:52:y:2014:i:1:p:163-191
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cohen, Lee Jeremy & Marcus, Alan J. & Rezaee, Zabihollah & Tehranian, Hassan, 2018. "Waiting for guidance: Disclosure noise, verification delay, and the value-relevance of good-news versus bad-news management earnings forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 79-99.
    2. David A. Maslar & Matthew Serfling & Sarah Shaikh, 2021. "Economic Downturns and the Informativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1520, September.
    3. Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles & Segal, Benjamin & Wang, Rencheng, 2016. "The bright side of managerial over-optimism," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 46-64.
    4. Souhei Ishida & Takuma Kochiyama & Akinobu Shuto, 2018. "Are More Able Managers Good Future Tellers? Learning from Japan (Forthcoming in Journal of Accounting and Public Policy)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-435, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Nov 2020.
    5. Chen, Jing & Jung, Michael J. & Tang, Michael, 2023. "Does lowball guidance work? An analysis of firms that consistently beat their guidance by large margins," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(6).
    6. Hart, Matthew, 2018. "How informative is qualitative management earnings guidance?," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 59-73.
    7. Claude Francoeur & Yuntian Li & Zvi Singer & Jing Zhang, 2023. "Earnings forecasts of female CEOs: quality and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1721-1764, September.
    8. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Lifang & Huang, Ying Sophie & Li, Yong, 2018. "How does credit market distortion affect corporate investment efficiency? The role of managerial forecast," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 266-273.
    9. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Chen, Lifang & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2016. "Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 54-69.

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