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Accruals and the Conditional Equity Premium

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  • HUI GUO
  • XIAOWEN JIANG

Abstract

Accruals correlate closely with the determinants of the conditional equity premium at both the firm and the aggregate levels. The common component of firm‐level accruals, which cannot be diversified away by aggregation, explains the positive relation between aggregate accruals and future stock market returns. The residual component, which accounts for most variation in firm‐level accruals, is responsible for the negative cross‐sectional relation between firm‐level accruals and future stock returns. Consistent with the risk‐based explanation, aggregate accruals, as a proxy for the conditional equity premium, forecast changes in aggregate economic activity. Moreover, we document a similar comovement of earnings with the conditional equity premium at both the firm and the aggregate levels, which helps explain the negative relation between changes in aggregate earnings and contemporaneous market returns.

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  • Hui Guo & Xiaowen Jiang, 2011. "Accruals and the Conditional Equity Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 187-221, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:49:y:2011:i:1:p:187-221
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2010.00393.x
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    1. Prodosh Simlai, 2021. "Accrual mispricing, value-at-risk, and expected stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1487-1517, November.
    2. Burks, Jeffrey J. & Randolph, David W. & Seida, Jim A., 2019. "Modeling and interpreting regressions with interactions," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 61-79.
    3. Choi, Jung Ho & Kalay, Alon & Sadka, Gil, 2016. "Earnings news, expected earnings, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 110-143.
    4. Jiajun Jiang & Qi Liu & Bo Sun, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and the (Discretionary) Accrual-return Relation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1300, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Chichernea, Doina C. & Holder, Anthony D. & Petkevich, Alex, 2015. "Does return dispersion explain the accrual and investment anomalies?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-148.
    6. Xanthi Gkougkousi, 2014. "Aggregate Earnings and Corporate Bond Markets," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 75-106, March.
    7. Chad R. Larson & Richard Sloan & Jenny Zha Giedt, 2018. "Defining, measuring, and modeling accruals: a guide for researchers," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 827-871, September.
    8. Heater, John C. & Nallareddy, Suresh & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2021. "Aggregate accruals and market returns: The role of aggregate M&A activity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2).
    9. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    10. Haga, Jesper & Ittonen, Kim & Tronnes, Per C. & Wong, Leon, 2018. "Is earnings management sensitive to discount rates?," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 75-88.
    11. Yaowen Shan & Stephen Taylor & Terry Walter, 2013. "Fundamentals or Managerial Discretion? The Relationship between Accrual Variability and Future Stock Return Volatility," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49(4), pages 441-475, December.

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