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The Cost of Employee Stock Option Grants: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Carol A. Marquardt

Abstract

This study presents empirical evidence on the ex post costs of employee stock option (ESO) grants to issuing firms and examines whether the Black–Scholes [1973] model provides reasonable estimates of these values. Because there are no market prices for ESOs, the traditional avenues for testing option–pricing models are unavailable. This research relies instead on techniques from the economic forecasting literature, viewing model values as forecasts of the options’ payoff. The theoretically appropriate rate at which to discount ESO payoffs is derived under the maintained hypothesis that the Black–Scholes model is valid. This rate is used in estimating ex post ESO costs at the time of grant, which are then compared with Black–Scholes estimates using Theil’s [1966] tests of forecast rationality. Based on a sample of 966 ESO grants over 1963–1984, the results suggest that the Black–Scholes model, adjusted for concavity in the time to exercise using the Hemmer, Matsunaga, and Shevlin [1994] procedure, appears to provide reasonable estimates of ex post ESO costs for the average ESO grant. However, there is significant variability in the amount of model error on an individual grant basis.

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  • Carol A. Marquardt, 2002. "The Cost of Employee Stock Option Grants: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 1191-1217, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:40:y:2002:i:4:p:1191-1217
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.00086
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    Cited by:

    1. Susana Álvarez-Díez & J. Baixauli-Soler & María Belda-Ruiz, 2014. "Are we using the wrong letters? An analysis of executive stock option Greeks," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 237-262, June.
    2. Zacharias Sautner & Martin Weber, 2009. "How Do Managers Behave In Stock Option Plans? Clinical Evidence From Exercise And Survey Data," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 123-155, June.
    3. Sautner, Zacharias & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Stock Options and Employee Behavior," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-26, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2020. "A Top-Down Approach For The Multiple Exercises And Valuation Of Employee Stock Options," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(02), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Tim Leung & Ronnie Sircar, 2009. "Accounting For Risk Aversion, Vesting, Job Termination Risk And Multiple Exercises In Valuation Of Employee Stock Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 99-128, January.
    6. Baixauli-Soler, J. Samuel & Belda-Ruiz, Maria & Sanchez-Marin, Gregorio, 2015. "Executive stock options, gender diversity in the top management team, and firm risk taking," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 451-463.
    7. Martin Widdicks & Jinsha Zhao, 2014. "A Model of Equity Based Compensation with Tax," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(7-8), pages 1002-1041, September.
    8. Susana Alvarez-Diez & J. Samuel Baixauli-Soler & Maria Belda-Ruiz, 2016. "Early Exercise Behaviour in Performance-vested Stock Option Grants," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 55-78, May.
    9. Leslie Hodder & William J. Mayew & Mary Lea McAnally & Connie D. Weaver, 2006. "Employee Stock Option Fair†Value Estimates: Do Managerial Discretion and Incentives Explain Accuracy?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 933-975, December.
    10. Tim Leung & Haohua Wan, 2015. "ESO Valuation with Job Termination Risk and Jumps in Stock Price," Papers 1504.08073, arXiv.org.
    11. Tristan Boyd & Philip Brown & Alex Szimayer, 2007. "What determines early exercise of employee stock options in Australia?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(2), pages 165-185, June.

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