IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jfnres/v45y2022i2p422-444.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy uncertainty and cash dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Tut

Abstract

Why and when do firms deviate from target cash? And why do we observe imperfect adjustment of cash? I postulate and provide evidence that policy uncertainty induces financing frictions and adjustment costs, which decelerate the speed of adjustment (SOA) of cash toward target. I find that the effects of policy uncertainty on SOA are higher for firms that operate below target cash than for firms that operate above target cash. The results suggest that under policy uncertainty shocks, firms deviate from target cash as the expected benefit of deviation is greater than the expected value of approaching the target.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Tut, 2022. "Policy uncertainty and cash dynamics," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 422-444, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:45:y:2022:i:2:p:422-444
    DOI: 10.1111/jfir.12279
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfir.12279
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jfir.12279?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsas, Ralf & Florysiak, David, 2015. "Dynamic Capital Structure Adjustment and the Impact of Fractional Dependent Variables," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(5), pages 1105-1133, October.
    2. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2017. "What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1869-1901, October.
    3. Duchin, Ran & Ozbas, Oguzhan & Sensoy, Berk A., 2010. "Costly external finance, corporate investment, and the subprime mortgage credit crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 418-435, September.
    4. Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1993. "Working Capital and Fixed Investment: New Evidence on Financing Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(3), pages 328-342, Autumn.
    5. Huang, Rongbing & Ritter, Jay R., 2009. "Testing Theories of Capital Structure and Estimating the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 237-271, April.
    6. Alan J. Auerbach, 1985. "Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 301-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Viral Acharya & Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2012. "Cash Holdings and Credit Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3572-3609.
    8. Venkiteshwaran, Vinod, 2011. "Partial adjustment toward optimal cash holding levels," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 113-121, August.
    9. Thomas W. Bates & Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash than They Used To?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 1985-2021, October.
    10. Ran Duchin & Thomas Gilbert & Jarrad Harford & Christopher Hrdlicka, 2017. "Precautionary Savings with Risky Assets: When Cash Is Not Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 793-852, April.
    11. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    13. Faulkender, Michael & Flannery, Mark J. & Hankins, Kristine Watson & Smith, Jason M., 2012. "Cash flows and leverage adjustments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 632-646.
    14. Vinod Venkiteshwaran, 2011. "Partial adjustment toward optimal cash holding levels," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(3), pages 113-121, August.
    15. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    16. Bougheas, Spiros & Mizen, Paul & Yalcin, Cihan, 2006. "Access to external finance: Theory and evidence on the impact of monetary policy and firm-specific characteristics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 199-227, January.
    17. Soku Byoun, 2008. "How and When Do Firms Adjust Their Capital Structures toward Targets?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 3069-3096, December.
    18. Michael Faulkender & Rong Wang, 2006. "Corporate Financial Policy and the Value of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1957-1990, August.
    19. Eugene F. Fama, 2002. "Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 1-33, March.
    20. Acharya, Viral V. & Almeida, Heitor & Campello, Murillo, 2007. "Is cash negative debt? A hedging perspective on corporate financial policies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 515-554, October.
    21. Jagannathan, Murali & Stephens, Clifford P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2000. "Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 355-384, September.
    22. Brown, Gregory & Kapadia, Nishad, 2007. "Firm-specific risk and equity market development," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 358-388, May.
    23. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    24. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely, 2002. "Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1649-1684, August.
    25. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    26. Öztekin, Özde & Flannery, Mark J., 2012. "Institutional determinants of capital structure adjustment speeds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 88-112.
    27. Opler, Tim & Pinkowitz, Lee & Stulz, Rene & Williamson, Rohan, 1999. "The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-46, April.
    28. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    29. Flannery, Mark J. & Rangan, Kasturi P., 2006. "Partial adjustment toward target capital structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 469-506, March.
    30. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    31. Amy Dittmar, 2008. "Corporate Cash Policy and How to Manage it with Stock Repurchases," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 20(3), pages 22-34, June.
    32. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:19-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Jarrad Harford & Sattar A. Mansi & William F. Maxwell, 2012. "Corporate Governance and Firm Cash Holdings in the U.S," Springer Books, in: Sabri Boubaker & Bang Dang Nguyen & Duc Khuong Nguyen (ed.), Corporate Governance, edition 127, pages 107-138, Springer.
    34. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1777-1804 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    36. Almeida, Heitor & Campello, Murillo, 2010. "Financing Frictions and the Substitution between Internal and External Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 589-622, June.
    37. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
    38. Xin Chang & Sudipto Dasgupta, 2009. "Target Behavior and Financing: How Conclusive Is the Evidence?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1767-1796, August.
    39. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    40. Jiang, Zhan & Lie, Erik, 2016. "Cash holding adjustments and managerial entrenchment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 190-205.
    41. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:651-680 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Çolak, Gönül & Öztekin, Özde, 2017. "Political environment, financial intermediation costs, and financing patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 167-192.
    43. Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Do Tests of Capital Structure Theory Mean What They Say?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1747-1787, August.
    44. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2005. "Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2575-2619, December.
    45. Michael L. Lemmon & Michael R. Roberts & Jaime F. Zender, 2008. "Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross‐Section of Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1575-1608, August.
    46. Dittmar, Amy & Mahrt-Smith, Jan, 2007. "Corporate governance and the value of cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 599-634, March.
    47. Ralf Elsas & David Florysiak, 2011. "Heterogeneity in the Speed of Adjustment toward Target Leverage," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 181-211, June.
    48. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    49. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Levy, Amnon, 2003. "Capital structure choice: macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 75-109, April.
    50. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tut, Daniel & Cao, Melanie, 2021. "Capital Reallocation and Firm-Level Productivity Under Political Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 108528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Zhaobo Zhu & Licheng Sun, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and short-term reversals," Post-Print hal-04691597, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Çolak, Gönül & Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Öztekin, Özde, 2018. "Global leverage adjustments, uncertainty, and country institutional strength," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 41-56.
    2. Dang, Viet Anh & Kim, Minjoo & Shin, Yongcheol, 2014. "Asymmetric adjustment toward optimal capital structure: Evidence from a crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 226-242.
    3. Tut, Daniel & Cao, Melanie, 2021. "Capital Reallocation and Firm-Level Productivity Under Political Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 108528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Im, Hyun Joong & Faff, Robert & Ha, Chang Yong, 2022. "Uncertainty, investment spikes, and corporate leverage adjustments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Dang, Viet Anh & Kim, Minjoo & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "In search of robust methods for dynamic panel data models in empirical corporate finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 84-98.
    6. Tongxia Li & Chun Lu, 2023. "Local social environment and the speed of leverage adjustment," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 1919-1952, June.
    7. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2017. "Capital structure adjustments: Do macroeconomic and business risks matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1463-1502, December.
    8. Frank, Murray Z. & Shen, Tao, 2019. "Corporate capital structure actions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 384-402.
    9. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2019. "Determinants of Optimal Capital Structure and Speed of Adjustment: Evidence from the U.S. ICT Sector," Working papers 2019-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    10. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Bottazzi, Laura & Golinelli, Roberto, 2020. "A multilevel index of heterogeneous short-term and long-term debt dynamics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Orlova, Svetlana V. & Rao, Ramesh P., 2018. "Cash holdings speed of adjustment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-14.
    12. Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Çolak, Gönül & Öztekin, Özde, 2017. "Political environment, financial intermediation costs, and financing patterns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 167-192.
    13. Morais, Flávio & Serrasqueiro, Zélia & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2022. "Capital structure speed of adjustment heterogeneity across zero leverage and leveraged European firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Devos, Erik & Rahman, Shofiqur & Tsang, Desmond, 2017. "Debt covenants and the speed of capital structure adjustment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-18.
    15. Dang, Tung Lam & Dang, Viet Anh & Moshirian, Fariborz & Nguyen, Lily & Zhang, Bohui, 2019. "News media coverage and corporate leverage adjustments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Marco Botta & Luca Colombo, 2016. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Capital Structure Decisions," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def038, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    18. Amini, Shahram & Elmore, Ryan & Öztekin, Özde & Strauss, Jack, 2021. "Can machines learn capital structure dynamics?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Trung K. Do & Henry Hongren Huang & Te-Chien Lo, 2023. "Does corporate social responsibility affect leverage adjustments?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1569-1604, May.
    20. Cristina Martínez-Sola & Pedro J. García-Teruel & Pedro Martínez-Solano, 2018. "Cash holdings in SMEs: speed of adjustment, growth and financing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 823-842, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:45:y:2022:i:2:p:422-444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.