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When Elections Fail To Resolve Uncertainty: The Case Of The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

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  • Justin S. Cox
  • Todd G. Griffith

Abstract

In this article, we examine whether certain political election outcomes create, rather than resolve, uncertainty in financial markets. We posit that the market uncertainty associated with unanticipated election outcomes is not resolved before or on the election dates. To test this claim, we use the surprise outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election and two previous U.S. presidential elections as benchmarks. In contrast to prior elections, we find that the 2016 U.S. presidential election outcome did not resolve market uncertainty. Specifically, we show significant increases in transactions costs, adverse selection costs, and volatility in the days following the election date. We contribute to the literature by suggesting that unexpected elections can engender, rather than resolve, market uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin S. Cox & Todd G. Griffith, 2019. "When Elections Fail To Resolve Uncertainty: The Case Of The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 735-756, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:42:y:2019:i:4:p:735-756
    DOI: 10.1111/jfir.12194
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    Cited by:

    1. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2024. "Unveiling interconnectedness: Exploring higher-order moments among energy, precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural commodities in the context of geopolitical risks and systemic stress," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    2. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Cui, Jinxin & Alshater, Muneer M. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk spillovers and optimal portfolio strategies in global oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    4. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "On the higher-order moment interdependence of stock and commodity markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-151.
    5. Delia DiaconaÅŸu & Seyed Mehdian & Ovidiu Stoica, 2023. "The Global Stock Market Reactions to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    6. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2024. "Higher-order moment risk spillovers across various financial and commodity markets: Insights from the Israeli–Palestinian conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).

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