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Monetary Policy Indicators As Predictors Of Stock Returns

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  • David A. Becher
  • Gerald R. Jensen
  • Jeffrey M. Mercer

Abstract

We explore the linkage between stock return predictability and the monetary sector by examining alternative proxies for monetary policy. Using two complementary methods, we document that failure to condition on the Fed's broad policy stance causes a substantial understatement in the ability of monetary policy measures to predict returns. Industry analyses suggest that cross‐industry return differences are also linked to changes in monetary conditions, as monetary policy has the strongest (weakest) relation with returns for cyclical (defensive) industries. Overall, we find that monetary conditions have a prominent and systematic relation with future stock returns, even in the presence of business conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Becher & Gerald R. Jensen & Jeffrey M. Mercer, 2008. "Monetary Policy Indicators As Predictors Of Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 357-379, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:31:y:2008:i:4:p:357-379
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2008.00243.x
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    2. Ray Sturm, 2013. "Economic policy and the presidential election cycle in stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(2), pages 200-215, April.
    3. Garcia-Feijoo, Luis & Jensen, Gerald R. & Jensen, Tyler K., 2018. "Momentum and funding conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 312-329.
    4. Paul Goebel & David Harrison & Jeffrey Mercer & Ryan Whitby, 2013. "REIT Momentum and Characteristic-Related REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 564-581, October.
    5. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    6. Tyler K. Jensen & Robert R. Johnson & Michael J. McNamara, 2019. "Funding conditions and insurance stock returns: Do insurance stocks really benefit from rising interest rate regimes?," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 367-391, December.
    7. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmad, 2018. "Behavioural Asset Pricing Determinants in a Factor and Style Investing Framework," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 32-52.
    8. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.

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