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Identifying Regime Changes In Market Volatility

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  • Weiyu Guo
  • Mark E. Wohar

Abstract

A casual inspection of a graph of volatility indexes over time indicates that volatility has undergone infrequent, but significant, shifts in its average level. The purpose of this article is to test for multiple structural breaks in the mean level of market volatility measured by the VIX and VXO, and to identify statistically the dates of these mean shifts. We find evidence of three distinct periods: pre‐1992, 1992–1997, and post‐1997. We find that the mean volatility, as well as its standard deviation, was lowest during 1992–1997. Our findings provide statistical evidence consistent with popular beliefs that market volatility changes over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiyu Guo & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "Identifying Regime Changes In Market Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 79-93, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:29:y:2006:i:1:p:79-93
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2006.00167.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. G. William Schwert, 1997. "Stock Market Volatility: Ten Years After the Crash," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-51, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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    2. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony, 2021. "Oil price changes, uncertainty, and geopolitical risks: On the resilience of GCC countries to global tensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Sarwar, Ghulam, 2017. "Examining the flight-to-safety with the implied volatilities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 118-124.
    4. Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Joonkyu Park & Jukka Pihlman & Han van der Hoorn, 2013. "Procyclical Behavior of Institutional Investors During the Recent Financial Crisis: Causes, Impacts, and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2013/193, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Cheong, Siew Ann & Fornia, Robert Paulo & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Kok, Jun Liang & Yim, Woei Shyr & Xu, Danny Yuan & Zhang, Yiting, 2011. "The Japanese economy in crises: A time series segmentation study," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Melike Bildirici & Işıl Şahin Onat & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2023. "Forecasting BDI Sea Freight Shipment Cost, VIX Investor Sentiment and MSCI Global Stock Market Indicator Indices: LSTAR-GARCH and LSTAR-APGARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-27, March.
    7. Sarwar, Ghulam, 2014. "U.S. stock market uncertainty and cross-market European stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Sarwar, Ghulam, 2012. "Is VIX an investor fear gauge in BRIC equity markets?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 55-65.
    9. N. Baba & Y. Sakurai, 2011. "Predicting regime switches in the VIX index with macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1415-1419.
    10. Bu Ruijun & Cheng Jie & Hadri Kaddour, 2017. "Specification analysis in regime-switching continuous-time diffusion models for market volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 65-80, February.
    11. Marco Neffelli & Marina Resta, 2018. "Is VIX still the investor fear gauge? Evidence for the US and BRIC markets," Papers 1806.07556, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    12. Melike E. Bildirici & Memet Salman & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2022. "Nonlinear Contagion and Causality Nexus between Oil, Gold, VIX Investor Sentiment, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Returns: The MS-GARCH Copula Causality Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Cheong, Siew Ann & Fornia, Robert Paulo & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Kok, Jun Liang & Yim, Woei Shyr & Xu, Danny Yuan & Zhang, Yiting, 2012. "The Japanese economy in crises: A time series segmentation study," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-81.
    14. Zhang, Yiting & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Wong, Jian Cheng & Kok, Jun Liang & Prusty, Manamohan & Cheong, Siew Ann, 2011. "Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2020-2050.

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