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Models Of Stock Market Predictability

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  • Burton G. Malkiel

Abstract

I briefly review the success of past studies purporting to explain equity valuations and predict future equity returns. The Campbell‐Shiller mean reversion models are contrasted with an expanded version of the so‐called Federal Reserve model. At least from 1970 to 2003, Federal Reserve–type models did somewhat better at predicting long‐horizon returns than did a mean reversion model based on dividend yields and price‐earnings multiples. However, timing investment strategies based on any of these prediction models do no better than a buy‐and‐hold strategy. Although some predictability of returns exists, there is no evidence of any systematic inefficiency that would enable investors to earn excess returns.

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  • Burton G. Malkiel, 2004. "Models Of Stock Market Predictability," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 449-459, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:27:y:2004:i:4:p:449-459
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2004.00102.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    2. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    3. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Time-Varying Expected Returns: Evidence from the U.S. and the U.K," NIPE Working Papers 10/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Zhengxin Joseph Ye & Bjorn W. Schuller, 2020. "Capturing dynamics of post-earnings-announcement drift using genetic algorithm-optimised supervised learning," Papers 2009.03094, arXiv.org.
    5. Peter Vlaar, 2005. "Defined Benefit Pension Plans and Regulation," DNB Working Papers 063, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Chih-Ling Tsai & Hansheng Wang & Ning Zhu, 2010. "Does a Bayesian approach generate robust forecasts? Evidence from applications in portfolio investment decisions," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 62(1), pages 109-116, February.
    7. Huber, Christoph & Huber, Jürgen & Hueber, Laura, 2019. "The effect of experts’ and laypeople’s forecasts on others’ stock market forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. McPherson, Matthew Q. & Palardy, Joseph, 2007. "Are international stock returns predictable?: An examination of linear and non-linear predictability using generalized spectral tests," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 452-464, December.
    9. Gunter Löffler, 2013. "Tower Building And Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 413-434, September.
    10. John H. Huston & Roger W. Spencer, 2009. "Speculative excess and the Federal Reserve's response," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.

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