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Market Timing Of International Stock Markets Using The Yield Spread

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  • Wei (Wendy) Liu
  • Bruce G. Resnick
  • Gary L. Shoesmith

Abstract

We use probit modeling to forecast bear stock markets in the United States and in eight major foreign stock markets. In general, we find that the U.S. yield spread contains more important market‐timing information than does the home‐country yield spread for profitable market timing. At a 35% probability screen, our simulations show that the U.S. dollar (representative local currency) investor could earn a median compound annual return across eight foreign (non‐U.S.) stock markets of 15.75% (17.67%) by following a market‐timing strategy versus a median buy‐and‐hold return of 13.56% (16.55%).

Suggested Citation

  • Wei (Wendy) Liu & Bruce G. Resnick & Gary L. Shoesmith, 2004. "Market Timing Of International Stock Markets Using The Yield Spread," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 373-391, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:27:y:2004:i:3:p:373-391
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2004.00099.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Damir Tokic & Dave Jackson, 2023. "When a correction turns into a bear market: What explains the depth of the stock market drawdown? A discretionary global macro approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 184-197, May.
    2. Bhaduri, Saumitra & Saraogi, Ravi, 2010. "The predictive power of the yield spread in timing the stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 261-272, September.
    3. Bohl, Martin T. & Czaja, Marc-Gregor & Kaufmann, Philipp, 2016. "Momentum profits, market cycles, and rebounds: Evidence from Germany," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 139-159.
    4. Luis Ferruz & Fernando Muñoz & Maria Vargas, 2010. "Does the size of a fund family matter when choosing an investment strategy? Evidence from spain," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-334, October.

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