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Optionality and Daily Dynamics of Convenience Yield Behavior: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Ahmet E. Kocagil

Abstract

In this article I empirically examine the daily convenience yield behavior for six commodity markets (crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, wheat, corn, and copper). The results illustrate that convenience yield behavior can be statistically explained within an option pricing framework. However, because one of the assumptions of the standard call option formula is not fully satisfied by the observed convenience yield series, an alternative option—exchange option—may be more appropriate for modeling the daily convenience yield behavior. Furthermore, I empirically test two hypotheses on convenience yield behavior. The results confirm the assertion that the convenience yield is increasing in marginal production costs. In addition, the findings offer limited support for the hypothesis that the convenience yield is decreasing in the serial autocorrelation of spot prices. The observed switch in the sign of regression coefficients as the order of autocorrelation increases is attributed to the probable presence of mean reversion in these markets.

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  • Ahmet E. Kocagil, 2004. "Optionality and Daily Dynamics of Convenience Yield Behavior: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 143-158, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:27:y:2004:i:1:p:143-158
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2004.00082.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Murat, Atilim & Tokat, Ekin, 2009. "Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-90, January.
    2. Evans, Lewis & Counsell, Kevin & Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Options Provided by Storage can Explain High Electricity Prices," Working Paper Series 3943, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    3. Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie, 2009. "How Options Provided by Storage Affect Electricity Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(3), pages 681-702, January.
    4. Omura, Akihiro & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard & Todorova, Neda, 2018. "Convenience yield, realised volatility and jumps: Evidence from non-ferrous metals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 496-510.
    5. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19042 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 208-214.
    7. Hankyeung Choi & David J. Leatham & Kunlapath Sukcharoen, 2015. "Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(1), March.
    8. Evans, Lewis & Counsell, Kevin & Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Options Provided by Storage can Explain High Electricity Prices," Working Paper Series 19042, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.

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