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An Equilibrium Analysis of Hedging with Liquidity Constraints, Speculation, and Government Price Subsidy in a Commodity Market

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  • Zhongquan Zhou

    (Washington University in Saint Louis and the Wharton Center for Quantitative Finance)

Abstract

We develop a simple commodity model to analyze (i) the effects of hedging with liquidity constraints, due to producers' inability to bear unlimited trading losses, (ii) the role of speculation in the process of risk allocation between consumers and producers, and (iii) the equilibrium implications of government price subsidies to the producers. We find that (1) liquidity constraints can cause futures prices to exhibit mean reversion, which then makes speculation profitable; (2) speculation tends to make futures price volatility an increasing function of futures price; and (3) government price subsidy, if actively hedged by the producers, serves to lower the futures risk premium and reduce futures volatility. Copyright The American Finance Association 1998.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhongquan Zhou, 1998. "An Equilibrium Analysis of Hedging with Liquidity Constraints, Speculation, and Government Price Subsidy in a Commodity Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1705-1736, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1705-1736
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    Cited by:

    1. Haugom, Erik & Ray, Rina, 2017. "Heterogeneous traders, liquidity, and volatility in crude oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 36-49.
    2. Dokuchaev, Nikolai & Yu Zhou, Xun, 2001. "Optimal investment strategies with bounded risks, general utilities, and goal achieving," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 289-309, April.
    3. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    4. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2020. "Regulatory reform and market efficiency: The case of Indian agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. N. Dokuchaev & U. Haussmann, 2001. "Optimal portfolio selection and compression in an incomplete market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 336-345, March.
    6. Bianchi, Robert J. & Fan, John Hua & Zhang, Tingxi, 2021. "Investable commodity premia in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Lüders, Erik, 2002. "Asset Prices and Alternative Characterizations of the Pricing Kernel," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-10, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Luiz Vitiello & Ivonia Rebelo, 2015. "A note on the pricing of multivariate contingent claims under a transformed-gamma distribution," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 291-300, October.

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