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Measurement Bias in the HICP: What do we know and What do we need to know?

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  • Mark A. Wynne
  • Diego Rodriguez‐Palenzuela

Abstract

. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the primary measure of inflation in the euro area, and plays a central role in the policy deliberations of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB defines its Treaty mandate of price stability as ‘… a year‐on‐year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2%[…] to be maintained over the medium term.’ Among the rationales given for defining price stability as prevailing at some positive measured inflation rate is the possibility that the HICP as published incorporates measurement errors of one sort or another that may cause it to systematically overstate the true rate of inflation in the euro area. This paper reviews what currently is known about the scope of measurement error in the HICP. We conclude that given the vague conceptual framework of the HICP, the scant research on price measurement issues in the EU and the ongoing improvements in the HICP, there is very little scientific basis at this time for a point (or even an interval) estimate of a positive bias in the HICP.

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  • Mark A. Wynne & Diego Rodriguez‐Palenzuela, 2004. "Measurement Bias in the HICP: What do we know and What do we need to know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 79-112, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i:1:p:79-112
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2004.00216.x
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    1. Is 2% still the solution?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2015-03-30 17:27:51

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    3. Andrew Filardo & Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Back to the future? Assessing the deflation record," BIS Working Papers 152, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Rossi, Sergio, 2004. "The enlargement of the euro area: what lessons can be learned from EMU?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 947-970, January.
    5. Hochstein Martin, 2018. "The Fairy Tale of Low Inflation in the Euro Area," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-4, December.
    6. Jakub Rybacki & Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek, 2018. "Is HICP really harmonized? Problems with quality adjustments and new products," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 97-116.
    7. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2004. "The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 19, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    8. Reis, Hugo J. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2006. "Hedonic prices indexes for new passenger cars in Portugal (1997-2001)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 890-908, December.
    9. repec:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:4:p:381-404 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mark A. Wynne, 2005. "An estimate of the measurement bias in the HICP," Working Papers 0509, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J., 2004. "Looking back at the international deflation record," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-311, December.
    12. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.
    13. Karsten Staehr, 2008. "The Maastricht Inflation Criterion and the New EU Members from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
    14. Huang Ning & Wimalaratne Waruna & Pollard Brent, 2017. "The Effects of the Frequency and Implementation Lag of Basket Updates on the Canadian CPI," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 33(4), pages 979-1004, December.
    15. Mark A. Wynne, 2011. "Microeconomic Aspects of the Globalization of Inflation: A Joint Conference with the Swiss National Bank," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 30-34.
    16. Sintos, Andreas, 2023. "Does inflation worsen income inequality? A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).
    17. Henning Ahnert & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Quality adjustment of European price statistics and the role for hedonics," Occasional Paper Series 15, European Central Bank.
    18. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "How should central banks define price stability?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 08, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Gian Maria Tomat, 2005. "Prices, Product Differentiation And Quality Measurement: A Comparison Between Hedonic And Matched Model Methods," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 547, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Jakob de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Renske Maas & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Inflation in the euro area and why it matters," DNB Occasional Studies 1403, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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