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Investor sentiment and management earnings forecast bias

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  • Helen Hurwitz

Abstract

This study investigates whether investor sentiment is associated with behavioral bias in managers’ annual earnings forecasts that are generally issued early in the year when uncertainty is relatively high. I provide evidence that management earnings forecast optimism increases with investor sentiment. Furthermore, I find that managers’ annual earnings forecasts are more pessimistic during low†sentiment periods than during normal†sentiment periods. Since managers lack incentives to further deflate stock prices during a low†sentiment period, this evidence indicates that sentiment†related management earnings forecast bias is likely to be unintentional. In addition, I find that the relationship between management earnings forecast bias and investor sentiment is stronger for firms with higher uncertainty, consistent with investor sentiment having a greater influence on management earnings forecasts when uncertainty is higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Helen Hurwitz, 2018. "Investor sentiment and management earnings forecast bias," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1-2), pages 166-183, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:45:y:2018:i:1-2:p:166-183
    DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12282
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    Cited by:

    1. Keval Amin & John Daniel Eshleman & Peng Guo, 2021. "Investor Sentiment, Misstatements, and Auditor Behavior," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 483-517, March.
    2. Chen, Tianhao & Chiu, Peng-Chia & Wang, Yiqian, 2024. "Media sentiment and management earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Adnan Abo Al Haija & Rahma Lahyani, 2023. "Dynamic interactions of actual stock returns with forecasted stock returns and investors’ risk aversion: empirical evidence interplaying the impact of Covid-19 pandemic," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1129-1149, October.
    4. Lamia Chourou & Luo He & Ligang Zhong, 2020. "Does religiosity enhance the quality of management earnings forecasts?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 910-948, July.
    5. Keval Amin & Erica Harris, 2022. "The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Nonprofit Donations," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 175(2), pages 427-450, January.
    6. Peter Clarkson & Alexander Nekrasov & Andreas Simon & Irene Tutticci, 2020. "Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52‐week high price and recent investor sentiment," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1365-1399, October.

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