IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v36y2009i7-8p925-950.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the Value Spread a Good Predictor of Stock Returns? UK Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Michou

Abstract

This paper explores the predictive ability of the value spread in the UK. I replicate the US analysis of Liu and Zhang (2007) using UK data. In addition, I extend their work by exploring the predictive ability of the book‐to‐market, market‐to‐book and value spread on other size and value investment strategies, namely: large‐caps only; small‐caps minus large‐caps (SML); value stocks only; growth stocks only; value stocks minus growth stocks (VMG) and a market portfolio that includes all stocks. The results are consistent with Liu and Zhang (2007) on the value spread. The value spread shows no predictive power for portfolio returns. Therefore, I show that the predictive power of book‐to‐market and market‐to‐book spreads depend on the portfolio formation strategies and the relative proportion of small‐cap, large‐cap, value and growth stocks in the portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Michou, 2009. "Is the Value Spread a Good Predictor of Stock Returns? UK Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7‐8), pages 925-950, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:36:y:2009:i:7-8:p:925-950
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2009.02148.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2009.02148.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2009.02148.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dmitry Livdan & Horacio Sapriza & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Financially Constrained Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1827-1862, August.
    2. Alan Gregory & Richard D.F. Harris & Maria Michou, 2001. "An Analysis of Contrarian Investment Strategies in the UK," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9‐10), pages 1192-1228, November.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    4. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    5. Daniel Chi‐Hsiou Hung & Mark Shackleton & Xinzhong Xu, 2004. "CAPM, Higher Co‐moment and Factor Models of UK Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1‐2), pages 87-112, January.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    7. Daniel Chi‐Hsiou Hung & Mark Shackleton & Xinzhong Xu, 2004. "CAPM, Higher Co‐moment and Factor Models of UK Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1‐2), pages 87-112, January.
    8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    10. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    11. Liu, Weimin, 2006. "A liquidity-augmented capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 631-671, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, July.
    2. Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joëlle Miffre, 2009. "The Value Premium and Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1252-1272.
    3. Keith Anderson & Tomasz Zastawniak, 2017. "Glamour, value and anchoring on the changing /," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 375-406, April.
    4. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Kong, Dongmin & Wu, Ji, 2017. "Do extreme returns matter in emerging markets? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 189-197.
    5. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Sotiria Plastira, 2014. "Fama French factors and US stock return predictability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 110-128, April.
    6. Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joëlle Miffre, 2009. "The Value Premium and Time‐Varying Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9‐10), pages 1252-1272, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Michou, 2009. "Is the Value Spread a Good Predictor of Stock Returns? UK Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7-8), pages 925-950.
    2. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    3. Nawar Hashem & Larry Su, 2015. "Industry Concentration and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 769-785, August.
    4. Sak, Halis & Huang, Tao & Chng, Michael T., 2024. "Exploring the factor zoo with a machine-learning portfolio," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    5. Huang, I-Hsiang, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the risk of value strategy: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 404-419, September.
    6. Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joëlle Miffre, 2009. "The Value Premium and Time-Varying Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1252-1272.
    7. French, Declan & Wu, Yuliang & Li, Youwei, 2016. "Identifying the relative importance of stock characteristics," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 80-91.
    8. Rob Bauer & Mathijs Cosemans & Peter C. Schotman, 2010. "Conditional Asset Pricing and Stock Market Anomalies in Europe," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(2), pages 165-190, March.
    9. Clark, Ephraim & Qiao, Zhuo, 2020. "The value premium puzzle, behavior versus risk: New evidence from China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 12-21.
    10. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    11. Praveen Kumar Das & S P Uma Rao, 2011. "Value Premiums And The January Effect: International Evidence," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15.
    12. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Estrategias Cuantitativas De Valor Y Retornos Por Accion De Largo," Finance 0503029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Wallmeier, Martin & Tauscher, Kathrin, 2012. "A Note on the Impact of Portfolio Overlapping in Tests of the Fama and French Three-Factor Model," FSES Working Papers 433, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    14. Chen, Long & Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2008. "The expected value premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 269-280, February.
    15. Kathrin Tauscher & Martin Wallmeier, 2016. "Portfolio Overlapping Bias in Tests of the Fama–French Three†Factor Model," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 367-393, June.
    16. Angela J. Black & David G. McMillan, 2004. "Non‐linear Predictability of Value and Growth Stocks and Economic Activity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 439-474, April.
    17. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time‐varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, April.
    18. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    19. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Sotiria Plastira, 2014. "Fama French factors and US stock return predictability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 110-128, April.
    20. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:36:y:2009:i:7-8:p:925-950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.