IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v35y2008i7-8p818-836.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market Reactions to Warnings of Negative Earnings Surprises: Further Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Weihong Xu

Abstract

This study examines two plausible explanations for Kasznik and Lev's (1995) counterintuitive finding that warning firms are subject to more negative market returns than no‐warning firms. Namely, are the more negative market reactions to warning firms due to their poorer future earnings performance or due to investor overreaction? I find that, compared with no‐warning firms, warning firms experience more severe one‐year‐ahead earnings declines and these earnings declines can explain the stronger market returns to warning firms. However, my results do not support an investor overreaction explanation. The tests of subsequent abnormal returns of warning firms over various windows do not detect stock return reversals due to correction for overreaction. In addition, the greater revisions in analysts' forecasts for warning firms are found to enhance analyst accuracy rather than increase analyst pessimism. Collectively, my results suggest that the more negative market reactions to warning firms reflect investors' rational anticipation of more severe declines in future earnings for warning firms rather than investor overreaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Weihong Xu, 2008. "Market Reactions to Warnings of Negative Earnings Surprises: Further Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7‐8), pages 818-836, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:35:y:2008:i:7-8:p:818-836
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2008.02096.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2008.02096.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2008.02096.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Burgstahler & Michael Eames, 2006. "Management of Earnings and Analysts' Forecasts to Achieve Zero and Small Positive Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5-6), pages 633-652.
    2. Skinner, Dj, 1994. "Why Firms Voluntarily Disclose Bad-News," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 38-60.
    3. Marilyn F. Johnson & Ron Kasznik & Karen K. Nelson, 2001. "The Impact of Securities Litigation Reform on the Disclosure of Forward‐Looking Information By High Technology Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 297-327, September.
    4. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    5. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    6. Francis, J & Philbrick, D & Schipper, K, 1994. "Shareholder Litigation And Corporate Disclosures," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 137-164.
    7. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    8. Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
    9. Lynn Hodgkinson, 2001. "Analysts' Forecasts and the Broker Relationship," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7‐8), pages 943-961, September.
    10. Ajinkya, Bb & Gift, Mj, 1984. "Corporate Managers Earnings Forecasts And Symmetrical Adjustments Of Market Expectations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 425-444.
    11. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    12. Bremer, Marc & Hiraki, Takato & Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Predictable Patterns after Large Stock Price Changes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 345-365, September.
    13. Libby, R & Tan, HT, 1999. "Analysts' reactions to warnings of negative earnings surprises," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 415-435.
    14. David Burgstahler & Michael Eames, 2006. "Management of Earnings and Analysts' Forecasts to Achieve Zero and Small Positive Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 633-652, June.
    15. Skinner, Douglas J., 1997. "Earnings disclosures and stockholder lawsuits," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 249-282, November.
    16. Field, Laura & Lowry, Michelle & Shu, Susan, 2005. "Does disclosure deter or trigger litigation?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 487-507, September.
    17. Lynn Hodgkinson, 2001. "Analysts' Forecasts and the Broker Relationship," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7&8), pages 943-961.
    18. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cox, Raymond A.K. & Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han & Nofsinger, John, 2017. "The Bad, the boom and the bust: Profit warnings over the business cycle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 13-19.
    2. Ajit Dayanandan & Han Donker & John Nofsinger, 2018. "Corporate goodness and profit warnings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 553-573, August.
    3. Cox, Raymond A.K. & Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han, 2016. "The Ricochet Effect of Bad News," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 385-401.
    4. Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han & Karahan, Gökhan, 2017. "Do voluntary disclosures of bad news improve liquidity?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 16-29.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weihong Xu, 2008. "Market Reactions to Warnings of Negative Earnings Surprises: Further Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7-8), pages 818-836.
    2. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    3. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    4. Kraft, Anastasia & Lee, Bong Soo & Lopatta, Kerstin, 2014. "Management earnings forecasts, insider trading, and information asymmetry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 96-123.
    5. Ying Huang & Ningzhong Li & Yong Yu & Xiaolu Zhou, 2020. "The Effect of Managerial Litigation Risk on Earnings Warnings: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(5), pages 1161-1202, December.
    6. Zhiyan Cao & Ganapathi Narayanamoorthy, 2005. "The Effect of Litigation Risk on Management Earnings Forecasts," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2379, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2009.
    7. Jeffrey Miller, 2009. "Opportunistic Disclosures of Earnings Forecasts and Non-GAAP Earnings Measures," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 3-10, May.
    8. Julie Cotter & Irem Tuna & Peter D. Wysocki, 2006. "Expectations Management and Beatable Targets: How Do Analysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 593-624, September.
    9. Field, Laura & Lowry, Michelle & Shu, Susan, 2005. "Does disclosure deter or trigger litigation?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 487-507, September.
    10. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    11. Ertimur, Yonca & Sletten, Ewa & Sunder, Jayanthi, 2014. "Large shareholders and disclosure strategies: Evidence from IPO lockup expirations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 79-95.
    12. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    13. Imran S. Currim & Jooseop Lim & Yu Zhang, 2018. "Effect of analysts’ earnings pressure on marketing spending and stock market performance," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 431-452, May.
    14. Joshua Cutler & Angela K. Davis & Kyle Peterson, 2019. "Disclosure and the outcome of securities litigation," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 230-263, March.
    15. Habib, Ahsan & Jiang, Haiyan & Bhuiyan, Md. Borhan Uddin & Islam, Ainul, 2014. "Litigation risk, financial reporting and auditing: A survey of the literature," Research in Accounting Regulation, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 145-163.
    16. François Aubert & Waël Louhichi, 2020. "Why Do Firms Release Profit Warnings?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1056-1067.
    17. Mary Brooke Billings & Matthew C. Cedergren & Svenja Dube, 2021. "Does litigation change managers’ beliefs about the value of voluntarily disclosing bad news?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1456-1491, December.
    18. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2013. "Bundled forecasts in empirical accounting research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 43-65.
    19. Stewart, Christopher R., 2023. "Appraisal rights and corporate disclosure during mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1).
    20. Agapova, Anna & Madura, Jeff, 2016. "Market uncertainty and earnings guidance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 97-111.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:35:y:2008:i:7-8:p:818-836. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.